Duration of Poverty

DO THE POOR REMAIN so their entire lives? This is often the case in developing nations where little opportunity is offered to the poor to prosper economically. There, longterm and multigenerational poverty is a reality. But in the industrialized world, particularly in nations with a large number of citizens existing in an economic middle class, studies show considerable mobility across the poverty threshold—with large percentages of the poor moving out of that condition and middle-class households that fall below the poverty threshold remaining there only briefly.

A way to measure the duration of poverty is by identifying “poverty spells,” or periods of time spent in poverty. To be considered as in such a spell, a person or household must live below poverty levels for at least 60 days. According to one study of Americans, 51.1 percent of the spells experienced by persons being tracked lasted four months or less. About 79.6 percent of such spells were over within a year.

Another study showed that among Americans living in poverty for the entire year of 1996, 65.1 percent remained in poverty in 1997, 55.5 percent remained throughout 1998, and 50.5 percent in 1999—with increasing numbers leaving poverty each year. In contrast, of Americans not in poverty in 1996, 2.9 percent fell below the poverty level in 1997, 3.3 percent for 1998, and 3.5 percent during 1999.

Thus, the poor in America are an ever-changing population, contrary to any perception that the destitute remain so for their entire lives, according to a number of studies, including the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID), the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, and the Survey of Income and Program Participation. Each found that most spells of poverty are fairly brief. The typical pattern in the United States was that households below the poverty line for several years often managed to rise above it. However, because they do not manage to rise very high, events such as loss of a job, breakup of a marriage, or disaster resulting in financial loss can throw such a family back into poverty very quickly.

Relatively few American households suffer from chronic poverty year after year. One study showed that between 1979 and 1991, one-third of all Americans experienced a spell of poverty. Of those who dropped below the poverty threshold about half were poor for three years or less; one-third remained so for four to nine years; 14.6 percent stayed there for 10 of 13 years; and only 4.5 percent remained poor all 13 years.

Is race a factor? This same study showed two-thirds of black Americans experienced poverty at some point during that 13-year period, compared to one-fourth of white Americans. Furthermore, 67 percent of white Americans who experienced poverty were poor for three years or less, whereas the figure for blacks remaining poor for only three years or less was 30 percent. Consequently, black Americans already touched by poverty were more likely to fall into it for substantially longer periods.

Another study showed that between 1969 and 1987, 38.1 percent ofall Americans experienced a spell of poverty, but that only 1.1 percent were poor throughout the entire 19 years.

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