Risk Assessment Instruments, Intimate Partner Violence

The Need for Risk Assessment Instruments

Historically, prediction of future assault was based on professional experience and intuition. More recently, predictions may be based on standardized risk assessment procedures and protocols that utilize instruments outlining various factors empirically associated with increased likelihood of future violence. These tools were developed in response to findings that various professionals are often unable to make unguided accurate predictions based on their experiences and [Page 608]clinical judgment beyond chance levels. These findings were of tremendous importance to criminal justice systems concerned with the balance between the safety of communities and the rights and freedoms of perpetrators. A false positive prediction could unnecessarily restrict a perpetrator's freedom. By contrast, a false negative prediction could jeopardize the safety of a victim and create a missed opportunity to institute appropriate safeguards to prevent future assault. Criminal justice systems demand sensitive and specific decision-making methods that would correctly classify the large number of cases being processed. Sensitivity refers to the ability to correctly detect true cases of recidivism and to predict them while minimizing false negatives and specificity refers to the ability to correctly discriminate cases in which no violence will occur and to not predict violence while minimizing false positives. Similarly, predictions in family court in regard to child custody and visitation involve the safety of adult victims and their children.

One indicator of risk that deserves special note is the victim's perception of risk from the perpetrator. Research and clinical wisdom support the notion that a victim's sense of being in danger should be taken very seriously. At the same time, half of victims who are murdered did not perceive lethal danger, but rather thought of their expartner as annoying or harassing. Some researchers have stressed the importance of a structured approach to history by using a calendar to accurately identify the full history and possible escalation of violence. Given the tendency of many victims to minimize the severity of violence, risk assessment tools may help professionals educate victims about the need for safety planning.

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