Futurology

Futurology is an interdisciplinary field that analyzes past and current conditions, events, and trends for the purpose of forecasting future developments. Alternate terms include future studies, futuristics, forecasting, and futurism. During this time of rapid technological, scientific, and social change, futurology is more important than ever. However, the goal of futurology is not to predict specific events or one-time occurrences, but to improve our probable or alternative futures.

Futurology is a relatively new field of study, first espoused by science fiction author H. G. Wells, who called for the establishment of “Departments and Professors of Foresight” during a 1932 BBC broadcast. The term futurology was first used during World War II by political scientist Ossip Flechteim, to describe this new field of knowledge based on a probable and systematic analysis for the future. During the Cold War, Herman Kahn, Olaf Helmer, and other experts at the RAND Corporation think tank laid the methodological foundations for futurology by employing the scenario technique, game theory, and systems analysis to analyze military strategy.

with these foundations set, it was possible to conduct the first course devoted to futurology, taught by Alvin Tof f 1er at The New School for Social Research in New York in 1966. Most of Toffler's key ideas are encapsulated in his book Future Shock, about the effects of accelerated rates of change on society, including “super-industrialization” and “information overload.” Toffler named some well-known and influential futurists of his time in his 1972 edition of The Futurists, such as R. Buckminster Fuller, Marshall McLuhan, and Margaret Mead. During the 1960s and 1970s, many futurist groups were formed, including the World Future Society in 1966.

Sir Arthur C. Clarke was another leading futurist and active member of the World Future Society, as well as a foreteller of global network communication satellites. He maintained that no one could predict the future but it was feasible to map “possible futures.” Other futurists, some more specialized than their predecessors, include Ray Kurzweil in the field of artificial intelligence, Eric Drexler in nanotechnology, Patrick Dixon in business, Arnulf Grubler in energy and environment, and Greg Stock in genetic engineering.

Today, futurists can include professional and academic visionaries, consultants, policy analysts, professors, and writers from many disciplines, including anthropology, computer science, economics, education, engineering, environmental science, history, library and information science, mathematics, physical sciences, political science, and sociology.

Regardless of a futurist's profession or academic expertise, all encourage “big picture” or cross-disciplinary thinking. According to futurist Edward Cornish, there are six “super trends” to understand if one wishes to see the big picture or the “Great Transformation” of what is shaping our future. They include technological progress; economic growth; health improvement; mobility increase; environmental decline; and deculturation. Futurists may advise companies, government agencies, and various organizations on possible scenarios and outcomes based on these super trends.

Based on these trends, futurists, or futurologists, employ a wide range of methodologies to examine and forecast the possible, probable, and preferable. The “possible” refers to what could happen; the [Page 553]“probable” refers to what would likely happen under circumstances subject to human control; the “preferable” is a prescriptive judgment as to what should happen. Forecasting is the attempt to estimate or predict future conditions based on current trends. It is important to define time periods in regards to short-term (1 to 5 years), medium-term (5 to 20 years), and long-term (20 to 50 years or beyond) forecasting of the future.

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