Birthrates, Human

Notions and Measures of Birthrate

Birthrate, the rate of fertility of the human population, can be determined in various ways. One way of understanding birthrate is by considering child-births per 1,000 people per year. This is a crude estimate of birthrate. As of 2007, accordingly, the average birthrate worldwide was 20.3 per year per 1,000 total population, and thus, for the total world population of about 6.6 billion, the average birthrate was 134 million babies per year.

Another method of determining birthrate is referred to as total fertility rate, which is the average number of children a woman gives birth to during her entire life. This is a better indicator compared with the crude birthrate because it is not affected by the age distribution of the population. A total fertility rate is a measure of the fertility of an imaginary woman who passes the age-specific fertility rates of women in the childbearing-age range. Thus total fertility rate is neither the number of children counted nor the fertility of an actual group of women. It is rather the average number of children born to a woman on condition that she is subjected to all age-specific fertility rates for ages of 15 to 49 of a given population in a given year. A third method of measuring birthrate is called general fertility rate, and this method measures the number of births per 1,000 women with the age range of 15 to 49. Standard birthrate, on the other hand, compares the age-sex structure to a hypothetical standard population.

Historical Development and Trends

Birthrates and death rates were closely even and high until the 19th century. Thus population growth was slow. But with the advancement of medicine and of living standards generally, death rates started to decline, leading to a growth in population size. In addition, whenever the fertility level rises above the replacement level, it contributes to the growth of population size.

Leon Bouvier and Jane Bertrand note that the 20th century, particularly its first half, experienced an increase in birthrates. The growth rate continued in the 1960s with an average birthrate of six children in the developing nations of Africa, Asia, and Latin America. UN reports indicate that there were [Page 96]some declines in fertility up to the end the century. Accordingly, the birthrate fell to 3.3 children among the developing countries during the years 1990 to 1995. Nonetheless there are wide disparities in birthrates even among these countries. In this regard, the rate of fertility for sub-Saharan Africa is 5.9, whereas it is 1.9 in East Asia. The historical development and current trend both show a state of an overall decline of birthrate worldwide, even though there is a wide gap between the developed world and the developing nations.

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