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Nuclear Terrorism

Employed by terrorists, a nuclear explosion and its incendiary and blast effects would cause physical destruction on a vast scale. The detonation of even a small nuclear weapon in a densely populated area would probably kill tens of thousands of people and seriously wound even more. The radiation released immediately in a nuclear explosion and the radioactive fallout of ash and debris that would probably follow would also cause serious damage to exposed individuals. What is the likelihood that terrorists could obtain and use nuclear weapons? What are some of the ways that terrorists might choose to attack nuclear targets in a highly developed country that made extensive use of nuclear power plants? These are some of the more important questions that any analysis of terrorism needs to address.

Nuclear Weapons

Nuclear weapons are devices that release energy stored in the atomic nucleus, the central, positively charged core of all atoms. The first nuclear weapons used uranium, a dense metal mined from the earth in many parts of the world, and plutonium, a human-made metal produced by irradiating uranium in nuclear reactors. The nuclei of these atoms can be made to fission, or divide, liberating vast quantities of energy in the process. Each fission also releases a few neutrons. If there is a sufficiently large mass of uranium or plutonium present, called a “critical mass,” those extra neutrons stimulate more nuclei to fission in an explosive chain reaction in which energy released by from vast numbers of fissioning nuclei is transformed into heat, radiation, and shock waves. We observe this vast release of energy as a nuclear explosion.

Fortunately, it is not easy to make a nuclear weapon despite the fact that numerous books, articles, and Web sites purport to give information about how it can be done. The most difficult part of making a nuclear weapon involves obtaining the necessary fissionable material, an isotope (or variety) of uranium known as U-235 because the total number of protons and neutrons in its nucleus is 235. It is very difficult to separate the lighter variety, U-235 needed to make bombs, from the heavier variety, U-238. Bomb builders who have obtained U-235 then can make a bomb from it directly or can use it to build a nuclear reactor that uses neutrons to irradiate U-238 and make plutonium-239 (Pu-239), another bomb material that fissions readily. The bomb dropped on Hiroshima in August 1945 used U-235, and the one employed at Nagasaki several days later used Pu-239.

The project to build the first U.S. nuclear weapons in World War II was a massive undertaking requiring the full resources of a powerful nation. Could terrorists do it? What is the probability that they have both the skills and technology needed to take the next step? Could they make a fission bomb or perhaps even a thermonuclear weapon? We can consider several possible scenarios.

A Terrorist Threat Assessment

We can say with complete confidence that it would be nearly impossible for a terrorist organization that did not have the support of a government to produce the fissionable uranium or plutonium for a fission bomb from raw materials. Nor is it possible that such a group of non-state actors could take irradiated nuclear fuel from a reactor and extract plutonium from it. The technologies involved are too complex, dangerous, and expensive for a small group to master.

Suppose, however, that terrorists could somehow obtain the fissionable uranium or plutonium in either metallic or powder form through theft, purchase, or bribery. In that case, a group that had access to scientific and engineering expertise including nuclear physicists, electrical engineers, skilled machinists, and explosives experts could probably make a nuclear device with an explosive yield approaching that of the weapons used against Japan. Such a device would probably not be small enough to be dropped from any aircraft that terrorists could commandeer or be launched as a missile warhead, but it would be deliverable by truck, railcar, or container transported by ship.

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