Undecided Voters

Undecideds, in election campaign lingo, are voters who have yet to decide which candidate—or side of an issue or referendum—they will support on Election Day. In pre-election polls, there are several ways of measuring support for a candidate or issue and, con-comitantly, the number of undecided voters. A few researchers argue for an open-ended question format, in which the respondent volunteers the name of his or her preferred candidate. Answering such open-ended questions requires respondents to recall candidate names on their own, which means that these questions generally have larger percentages of “don't know” responses than closed-ended questions in which respondents hear or read candidates' names.

More frequently, however, researchers use a closed-ended “trial heat” question because the closed-ended measure has proven over time to be most accurate if comparison to Election Day results is the yardstick. These “read-list” questions in a telephone survey typically list all the candidates—or at least the major party candidates in a race—and ask whom the respondent would vote for “if the election were held today.” Some research suggests that, especially in state and local races, it is important to list all candidates and their parties, rather than asking only about major-party candidates or about major-party candidates and the nonspecific ideal candidate, “someone else.” For those who were initially undecided or refused to express a candidate preference, the question would attempt to ascertain whom the respondent leaned toward supporting. By combining these “leaners” with the original “choosers,” the question determines overall support.

At least three other types of respondents are interviewed in pre-election polls: (1) those who say they will vote in the election but won't cast a vote in one race or another, (2) those who refuse to say whom they will support, and (3) those who are truly undecided. Often election pollsters combine the three types for reporting and analysis purposes into a category called “no opinion.”