Spiral of Silence

Originally developed in the early 1970s by German political scientist and pollster Elisabeth Noelle - Neumann, the spiral of silence remains one of the few theoretical approaches that attempts to understand public opinion from a process-oriented perspective. The general conceptual premise of this theory is that there are different styles of communicative behavior for those who are in the majority versus those in the minority for a given issue.

According to the theory, those who are in the majority are more likely to feel confident in expressing their opinions, while those in the minority fear that expressing their views will result in social ostracism, and therefore they remain silent. These perceptions can lead to a spiraling process, in which majority viewpoints are publicly overrepresented, while minority viewpoints are increasingly withheld and therefore underrepresented. This spiral results in escalating social pressure to align with the majority viewpoint, which in turn can lead to declining expressions of minority viewpoints. As the apparent “majority” position gains strength (i.e. is expressed more and more confidently in public), those who perceive themselves as being in the minority will be more likely to withhold their opinion.

In responding to those who have attempted to explain public opinion as a rational, informed process, Noelle-Neumann has argued repeatedly that public opinion is a method of social control, akin to the latest fashion trends, which exert pressure to conform and comply. At the heart of the spiral of silence theory is the notion that people are highly motivated to fit in and get along with others. Noelle-Neumann refers to this motivation to avoid group exclusion as the “fear of isolation.” Noelle-Neumann's argument for the existence of the fear of isolation is based primarily on [Page 831]the conformity research conducted by Solomon Asch in the 1950s. Asch found that subjects who were asked to judge the length of clearly different-sized lines were surprisingly willing to offer an obviously incorrect answer when other subjects—all of whom were confederates instructed by the experimenter to offer an incorrect judgment—had also offered incorrect judgments.

Noelle-Neumann, citing the influence of Alexis de Tocqueville, posits that most people would rather go along with an incorrect majority than strike out on their own and risk social isolation from the majority group. Exceptions are noted, however, in the form of the “hardcore,” who seem to pay little mind to social isolation and are willing to hold onto and express unpopular opinions. These “avant-garde” are noted for their willingness to express viewpoints that are not popular, yet their opinions are often predictive of future trends that will later be accepted as the majority view.

In noting that individuals are constantly scanning their environments for clues regarding what others think, the spiral of silence accounts for the iterative and dynamic nature of public opinion. Through interpersonal interaction and exposure to media, people are able to gauge public opinion (referred to as a “quasi-statistical sense” by Noelle-Neumann) and use that information as a means of predicting how others will react if they decide to express or withhold certain opinions. The media comprise the second key theoretical element of the spiral of silence theory. Noelle-Neumann posited that the media are consonant and ubiquitous in their presentation of issues, resulting in a media-driven opinion context. By linking this media force with interpersonal interactions, the theory incorporates two key elements of communication research: media effects and interpersonal/group dynamics.

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