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National Election Studies (NES)

The American National Election Studies (NES) are national surveys of voters in the United States that have been conducted by the University of Michigan before and after every presidential election since 1948. For midterm elections, the NES has conducted postelection studies since 1958. The NES has become the standard bearer for election studies. Indeed, international election studies have patterned their approach and question format after the NES. The popularity of the NES is due, in part, to its consistency. It has asked many of the same questions repeatedly since its inception. This has allowed researchers to develop innovative hypothesis testing through the examination of many variables, which has permitted analysis across people, contexts, and time.

History

The NES grew out of the studies created by the Survey Research Center and the Center for Political Studies of the Institute for Social Research at the University of Michigan. The program always lacked sufficient funding, which limited improvement to the study. The funding that it did receive was primarily used to conduct the survey. As a result, there were rarely changes to the core questions of the study. This also meant that those not directly involved in the program had little influence on the types of questions offered.

In 1977, through the initiative of sociologist Warren E. Miller, the National Science Foundation (NSF) formally established the National Election Studies. With sufficient funding, the NES was expected to fulfill two expectations. First, it was expected to continue the time-series collection of core questions. NSF insisted that they continue collecting data on social background, underlying social and political values, opinions on public policy, political predispositions, participation in the political process, and perceptions of groups, leaders, and political candidates. Second, with NSF funding, the NES was also expected to improve the studies' core concepts and questions.

When the NSF began funding the NES, it mandated that NES become a truly national resource. This meant that researchers at the University of Michigan were expected to seek out and accept suggestions from outside sources, primarily researchers at other institutions. This has granted a greater number of scholars access to the NES, which, in turn, has improved the quality and breadth of the study. The NES research agenda undergoes a great deal of evaluation and revision as the principal investigators, board of overseers, and ad hoc committees all have their say in the direction of each project.

Planning the National Election Studies

Planning for the NES typically begins two years prior to the election to be studied. One year prior to the election, the Survey Research Center at the University of Michigan conducts a pilot study. These pilot studies are designed to test new survey questions, which are typically associated with a special theme or important current events. Usually this means that multiple versions of each question are used and later examined for reliability and validity. All NES questionnaires consist of new questions drawn from the pilot studies and the core time-series questions.

The core time-series questions are selected because they are consistently relevant to national elections, public opinion, and civic participation. These questions are included in the NES to serve two purposes. First, it allows the NES to measure the impact of exogenous shocks to the political system. Second, these time-series allow scholarship to examine the nature and causes of political change more closely.

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