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David Hawkins and Richard Catalano developed the risk and protective factor theory on the basis of an extensive review of research on substance use and other problem behaviors among youth. Analogous to the medical model of human disease, this theory suggests that substance abuse and other problem behaviors can be mitigated by limiting the number or preventing the development of risk factors and by bolstering protective factors within individuals. Risk factors are defined as anything within an individual or the individual's family, peers, or community that increases the likelihood of developing a problem with substance use. Conversely, protective factors are defined as anything that decreases the probability of developing problematic substance use. To be included as a risk or protective factor, variables of interest had to be associated with an increase (risk factor) or decrease (protective factor) in the problem behavior and had to be empirically validated and replicated with longitudinal studies. A summary of the risk and protective factors that have been shown to predict substance abuse (and many other problem behaviors) among youth follows.

Risk Factors

Research has consistently demonstrated that exposure to multiple risk factors is strongly predictive of later substance abuse. In fact, the quantity of risk factors present may be more important in predicting problematic behavior than the makeup of any one risk factor. Thus, several researchers and policymakers emphasize that for prevention and intervention programs to be effective they must target a variety of risk factors from several different domains.

Individual-Level Risk Factors

Because all levels of social influence ultimately filter down to the individual level, risk factors within the individual may be particularly important to consider. Moreover, these factors may be the most amenable to change on an individual level. Research has consistently shown that youth who exhibit other antisocial behaviors such as aggression or rebelliousness have an increased risk of developing problems with substance use. Similarly, youth with favorable attitudes toward problematic behaviors (including substance use) are more likely to use drugs and alcohol than are youth with less favorable attitudes. Specific characteristics that frequently coexist with antisocial behavior, including impulsiveness, poor coping skills, and sensation seeking, have also been shown to be predictive of substance misuse. Finally, the earlier youth begin to use substances, the more likely they will be to develop a substance-related problem.

Family-Level Risk Factors

Previous research has documented a strong association between several family risk factors and the development of substance abuse problems in youth. For example, consistent with social learning theory, a history of substance misuse and other deviant behaviors within the family, along with parental attitudes that are favorable to or dismissive of drug and alcohol use, is an often cited risk factor. Moreover, growing up in a home environment characterized by stress, conflict, or mental illness has been shown to predict substance use in youth. Parenting styles (e.g., severe or inconsistent punishment, lack of clear expectations), low parental supervision, lack of parental attachment, and parental inattention have also been found to be associated with the likelihood that adolescents will become involved in problematic substance use.

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