Inference

Definition

Inference is the act of judging a person, even when limited information is available. People usually form their inferences by paying attention to important [Page 475]information around them and then using a set of rules to come to some decision. When people infer why something happened, they often consider whether the outcome was positive or negative. Positive outcomes tend to be socially desirable, whereas negative outcomes are perceived as socially undesirable. Thus, the social desirability of a behavior determines the qualities people infer about the person who committed the act.

Prominent Perspectives

Fritz Heider's attributional perspective tries to explain how regular people decide where the behavior of others originates. When people infer that someone's behavior was the result of stable personality traits, they make a dispositional inference, but when behavior is thought to result from external, contextual sources, they make a situational inference. Research generally finds that people make dispositional inferences about others because it provides a template for how the others will behave in other situations.

Harold Kelley's covariation theory predicts that people make inferences by estimating the extent to which causes and outcomes are related. More simply, people are more likely to infer that A caused B if they both occurred similarly in time. If an outcome has more than one potential cause, then people tend to discount all those potential causes, making it hard to determine the actual cause of the outcome. When the sole cause of an outcome can be determined, the inference is easier to make.

Inferential Errors

The inferential process is imperfect and subject to systematic errors. The correspondence bias is the perception that behaviors correspond with underlying traits, even when this may not be the case. The actor– observer effect is the tendency to overemphasize the situation when inferring about one's own behavior but not the behavior of others. One's inferential errors are usually self-serving, in that they tend to enhance positive perceptions of the self and negative perceptions of others.

Why is Inference Adaptive?

Inference serves three adaptive purposes: understanding, controlling, and self-enhancement. In an unpredictable social world, making causal inferences creates a sense of understanding with the added possibility to influence outcomes. The inferential process also fosters a sense of control over the environment, as people come to expect some relationship between causes and effects. By making trait inferences for other peoples' negative acts, people view themselves more positively by comparison, simultaneously maintaining a positive sense of self. In general, the inferential process is both functional and adaptive.