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Counterfactual Thinking

Definition

Counterfactual thoughts focus on how the past might have been, or the present could be, different. These thoughts are usually triggered by negative events that block one's goals and desires. Counterfactual thoughts have a variety of effects on emotions, beliefs, and behavior, with regret being the most common resulting emotion.

Counterfactual means, literally, contrary to the facts. Sometimes counterfactuals revolve around how the present could be different (“I could be at the movies instead of studying for this exam”). More frequent, however, are counterfactual thoughts of what might have been, of what could have happened had some detail, or action, or outcome been different in the past. Whenever we say “if only” or “almost,” or use words like “could,” “would,” or “should,” we may be expressing a counterfactual thought (If only I were taller; I almost won that hand, etc.). Sometimes counterfactuals are used as an argument in a speech (“If Kennedy had decided to attack Cuba during the Cuban missile crisis, it would have ended in nuclear war”) or to speculate or evaluate (“What if the 9/11 terrorists had been stopped by security guards at the airport?”).

Background and History

Philosophers throughout the 20th century have been fascinated by counterfactuals because of what they say about logic and the nature, origin, and limits of human knowledge. Psychological research on counterfactuals began in the early 1980s with the realization that such thoughts are crucial to how people understand the past, predict the future, and come to understand the flow of events in their lives. Sometimes counterfactual thoughts are painful and even debilitating, such as when a person thinks, after a tragic accident, about how he or she should have told his or her best friend to wear a seat belt. In such cases, the counterfactual invites selfblame, which can make the anguish of a bad situation even worse. For this reason, researchers have been particularly interested in how counterfactual thinking is related to coping, depression, and anxiety.

Researchers distinguish between two main types of counterfactuals. Upward counterfactuals are thoughts as to how a situation might have turned out better. For example, a driver who causes a minor car accident might think: “If only I had swerved sooner, I could have avoided the accident.” In contrast, downward counterfactuals spell out the way a situation might have turned out worse; that is, the same driver could think: “If I had been driving faster, I might now be dead.” Upward counterfactuals seem to be the most common in everyday life.

Characteristics of Counterfactual Thinking

Three types of circumstances make counterfactual thinking likely. First, the most common trigger for counterfactual thoughts is negative emotion or a problematic situation. When people feel bad about a negative outcome, they often ruminate about how that outcome could have been avoided; thus, counterfactual thoughts are more common after defeats than victories, failures than successes, and penalties than rewards. Second, counterfactual thoughts are more likely after a “near miss” or an event that almost occurred, because when something almost happens, it seems to invite speculation about alternatives. For example, missing a plane by 2 minutes is likely to spark more thoughts on how one might have caught the plane as compared to missing a plane by a full two2 hours. Third, people also think in “If only…” terms when they are surprised by an outcome, as when an unexpected result goes against what the person had assumed would happen, thereby drawing attention and causing reflection as to why the outcome occurred.

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