Urban Decline

Urban decline refers to a process that includes population loss and the concentration in cities of major social, economic, and environmental problems, such as high levels of unemployment and poverty and the deterioration of housing and public infrastructure. Sometimes used interchangeably with the terms urban decay and urban distress, urban decline is frequently measured by changes in population (particularly in relation to middle- and upper-income residents), unemployment, and poverty rates; changes in median household income; and changes in property values, housing tenure, and vacancy rates.

While many metropolitan areas in the United States experienced significant population increases in the second half of the 20th century, the growth was not even, either across or within regions of the country. In general, cities in the South and West experienced significant growth, whereas older, industrialized cities in the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Midwest experienced significant declines in population. Part of the decline in the Rustbelt cities reflects the migration of people from these regions to the Sunbelt, but more generally, much of the decline in the older city reflects the decentralization of the population from central cities to suburbs. In 1950, 63 percent of the total U.S. population lived in metropolitan areas. Of this population, 57 percent lived in the central city and 43 percent lived in suburban areas. By 2000, 80 percent of the total U.S. population lived in metropolitan areas, but only 38 percent of those people lived in the central city.

Many of the older cities reached their population peaks in 1950 or 1960 and have shrunk considerably since then. For example, the population of Baltimore was 31 percent smaller in 2000 than it was in 1950. Other major cities in the East and Midwest also had significant declines: Cleveland, 46 percent; Boston, 26 percent; Chicago, 20 percent; Detroit, 49 percent; and Philadelphia, 27 percent. New York City, the largest city in the United States, is an exception in that its population has increased slightly over this time. The demographic characteristics of the central city populations also changed significantly during this time. The large numbers of residents who left the city were disproportionately white, middle and upper classes.

The growth of suburban developments tends to draw middle- and upper-income residents because only they can afford the housing in these areas. Many of the suburbs adopt zoning regulations that prevent the construction of low-cost housing, particularly multifamily housing. At the same time, African Americans continued their migration from the rural South to the cities of the North and Midwest. By 2000 African Americans had become the majority of city residents in Baltimore, Detroit, Newark, and Gary (Indiana) and over one third of the population in Philadelphia, Washington, D.C., Cleveland, Chicago, and numerous other cities.

Along with the decline of residents, older cities also experienced significant job losses. There has been a major decline in the basic manufacturing industries, including steel and automobiles, which dominated the local economies of these cities. These industries, which offered thousands of well-paid jobs to city residents, underwent major transformations due to changes in technology and the expanding global economy. Since the 1970s, New York City, Chicago, Philadelphia, Detroit, Cleveland, and Baltimore all lost more than 70 percent of their manufacturing jobs. Although the economy also created new jobs, in most of these cities, the transformation to a service economy did not replace the number of jobs or the pay of these manufacturing positions. This is due to at least two factors: the location of the new jobs and the skill requirements for the service jobs. Many businesses that were formerly located in the central city relocated to the suburban communities. Most new businesses, including offices and retail stores, were established in the suburban fringe. Many of the service jobs that remained or were created in the central city require advanced skills, training, and education, which many of the city residents do not possess. This is referred to as a “spatial mismatch.” While unemployment rates vary across areas and time periods, urban unemployment rates are generally higher than suburban rates. For example, the unemployment rate for large cities in the United States in 2000 was 35 percent higher than that of their suburbs. Without jobs that pay good wages, urban residents experience much higher poverty rates than do suburban dwellers. While the ratio of urban-to-suburban poverty rates varies over time, in 2000 the poverty rate in central cities was more than double the rate in suburban areas.

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