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Since the mid-20th century, concern in the United States has escalated about students who leave the formal education system before completing at least a high school diploma. Recent high school dropout rates are often described as a “crisis,” particularly in big cities, where the figures may be as high as 50 percent. Nationally, a common statistic is that around 30 percent of those who start high school never complete a regular high school diploma, although different methods of calculating the rate yield dramatically different estimates. The numbers also vary substantially by gender, socioeconomic status, and ethnic background.

Still, a large share of dropouts—upward of 50 percent—do eventually attain a high school-level credential, most often by completing the general education development (GED) credential. Since the 1970s, the percentage of young adults earning GEDs has gone up, statistically offsetting a small rise in the dropout rate during the same period. But GED preparation often is not as rigorous as ordinary high school curriculum, and experts do not consider it a true equivalent to earning a high school diploma.

Reasons for Concern

Most often the problem of dropping out is cast in economic terms. In the eyes of many sociologists and economists, the link between years of education and personal earnings is irrefutable, at least in aggregate statistics. Extending this logic, people who do not reach a certain level of education are relegated to the least desirable and lowest-paying jobs. A range of ideas have been put forward to explain why this is the case. For example, some consider education particularly important due to the rise of so-called knowledge work in white-collar jobs. Whatever the reasons, dropping out appears to drastically reduce chances for upward economic mobility; it is a decidedly negative factor in the U.S. opportunity structure—a factor all the more troubling because it disproportionately affects minority groups.

A related line of thinking ties education to U.S. competition in the world economy. Many people believe the U.S. education system plays a central role in ensuring the country's economic strength; the country cannot “afford” to have undereducated workers. Valid or not, this is an enduring argument and produces characteristic calls to increase both the quantity and quality of general education.

Historically though, rationales for formal education were not all economic. The public school movement of the 19th century emphasized education's role in shaping an informed public. Education was perceived as a requirement of a healthy democracy. Another argument for compulsory education was to protect children from exploitative labor, and a related motive, to prevent adults from losing their jobs to low-wage young workers. At different times religion has also been a stimulus to education, as has the general wish for a “liberal” or well-rounded education. All these ideas are notable in their relative absence from the contemporary framing of school dropouts.

Research on Dropouts

Because the issue has held such a high profile, a large amount of research has been done on this subject. Much of this work attempts to identify subgroups of students who are likely to drop out, along with combinations of factors that increase or decrease their chances of doing so. Four themes emerge in the

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