Population, Graying of

The 1870 U.S. Census enumerated the elderly—people 65 years of age or older—at about 1.2 million people (3 percent of the total population of 40 million). However, during the 20th century, with industrialization and changes in fertility and mortality patterns, a new age structure emerged for the population of the United States. Twenty-eight million people were added during the 1950s, at the height of the baby boom era that began after World War II and ended in 1964. The years between 1960 and 1980 were especially dramatic in their contribution: although the total population increased by nearly 19 percent, the population of people ages 65 and older increased by 34 percent (about 25 million in 1980). When age 65 was set as the threshold for Social Security benefits in 1935, the predicted average life expectancy at birth was barely over 60 years. In comparison, the average life expectancy presently is about 78 years. This growth and change has resulted in the “graying” of the U.S. population, and the phenomenon has not diminished since.

In 1986, 12 percent of the population was made up of senior citizens, or about 29 million people over the age of 65. By 2030, the proportion of Americans age 65 or older is predicted to increase to nearly 20 percent, or about 72 million elderly people. In 2000, the median age of the overall population was 35.3 years; barely a century ago, the median age was 22.9 years. In 2030, according to current Census Bureau projections, our median age will be 39.0 years. We are the oldest that our population has ever been, but younger than it is projected ever to be again.

The expansion of the elderly population has been especially pronounced for the “oldest old,” that segment of individuals who are age 85 and older. The proportion of the oldest old in our total population has increased so dramatically that it is no longer unusual to encounter people who are age 100 or more. By 2050, the Census Bureau's middle-range projections suggest that the proportion of Americans ages 85 and older will be nearly as large as the proportion that were age 65 or older in 1930.

As the U.S. population continues to grow, demographers project that programs for the elderly will consume a larger share of federal tax dollars. In 1980, federal spending on the elderly was nearly a third of the federal budget and may well be nearly half the federal budget in 2015. The future problems with Social Security costs, as the baby boomers approach retirement, though, will pale in comparison to the continually rising costs of health care and prescription drugs; the expectations are that Medicaid and Medicare program costs will triple by 2015.

What these data suggest is that the aging of the population will have a significant effect on society. Median age has increased, as has life expectancy; people are living much longer, and therefore there are more elderly people in competition with the young for societal resources. Two questions emerge about the conundrum of the graying of our population: With the rising costs of Medicaid and Medicare and Social Security, and the challenges of demographic change, how are we going to take care of the graying population, without short-changing current and future generations? Also, how does the situation in the United States compare with the rest of the world, in both the industrialized and developing worlds?

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