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Validity of Research Conclusions

Sometimes described as “statistical conclusion validity,” the validity of research conclusions refers to the degree to which the conclusions made about the null hypothesis are reasonable or correct. Because the null hypothesis typically states that a relationship between two variables does not exist, the validity of a research conclusion also refers to whether a relationship exists between two variables. Although the validity of research conclusions is distinct from construct validity and external validity, it is important to distinguish conclusion validity clearly from internal validity. Internal validity involves whether a relationship between two variables is a plausibly causal one. The validity of a research conclusion is concerned only with the presence or absence of a relationship between two variables. Thus, conclusion validity answers the most basic of questions from a cumulative set of validity questions (followed by questions regarding internal validity, construct validity, and then external validity), as it requires only a decision regarding covariation (not casual aspects such as temporal precedence of the presumed cause occurring prior to the presumed effect and minimal alternative explanations).

The validity of research conclusions is often considered an issue of statistical inference. For instance, a researcher who conducts a study of the effect of a persuasion technique on attitudes about undocumented immigration will want to conclude whether a relationship exists between the presences or the absences of the persuasive technique and change (or lack thereof) in the attitudes. However, the validity of research conclusions is also relevant for qualitative or observational field research. For instance, a researcher who observes traffic patterns and acts of vehicular aggression might want to conclude whether a relationship exists between drivers who slow down to observe nearby accidents and the likelihood of additional auto accidents. Despite the fact that the conclusions of a qualitative study might be based on impressionistic data, the validity of the research conclusions might be assessed, that is, whether a reasonable conclusion has been made about the relationship between two variables.

Possible Conclusions and Possible Consequences

To understand fully how it is that research conclusions might be considered valid, one must first understand the basic logic of hypothesis testing. Essentially, there are only two possible conclusions to all research endeavors. The first possible conclusion is that the data provide a reasonably significant result (in quantitative research, such as correlational and experimental studies, this is referred to as a statistically significant result; the term reasonably significant is used here to encompass both quantitative and qualitative research). That is, the data are sufficiently discrepant from the relationship stated by the null hypothesis that the null hypothesis is rejected. Because the null hypothesis typically asserts that a relationship between two variables does not exist, the significant result asserts that a relationship does exist.

The only other conclusion that might be made is that the data provide a nonsignificant result. That is, the data are not sufficiently discrepant from the relationship stated by the null hypothesis. Thus, the null hypothesis is retained. Note that the null hypothesis is not accepted. In other words, a nonsignificant result indicates uncertainty as to whether a relationship exists and does not necessarily indicate that no relationship exists.

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