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Time-Series Study
Time-series analysis (TSA) is a statistical methodology appropriate for longitudinal research designs that involve single subjects or research units that are measured repeatedly at regular intervals over time. TSA can be viewed as the exemplar of all longitudinal designs. TSA can provide an understanding of the underlying naturalistic process and the pattern of change over time, or it can evaluate the effects of either a planned or unplanned intervention. The advances in information systems technology are making time-series designs an increasingly feasible method for studying important psychological phenomena.
Modern TSA and related research methods represent a sophisticated leap forward in the ability to analyze longitudinal data. Early time-series designs, especially within psychology, relied heavily on graphical analysis to describe and interpret the results. Although graphical methods are useful and provide important ancillary information, the ability to bring a sophisticated statistical methodology to bear has revolutionized the area of single-subject research.
TSA was developed more extensively in areas such as engineering and economics before it came into widespread use within social science research. The prevalent methodology that has developed and been adapted in psychology is the class of models known as Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models. TSA requires the use of high-speed computers; the estimation of the basic parameters cannot be performed by precomputer methods.
Figure 1 Smoking Behavior Measured on 124 Occasions: An Example of Time-Series Data for a Single Individual
A major characteristic of time-series data is the dependency that results from repeated measurements over time on a single subject or unit. All longitudinal designs must take dependency into account. Dependency precludes the use of traditional statistical tests because they assume the independence of the error. ARIMA models have proven especially useful because they provide a basic methodology to model the dependency from the data series and allow valid statistical tests. This entry discusses several aspects of TSA, including its application in research, modeling procedures, weakness and confounders, and the use of telemetrics in TSA.
Research Applications
As the methodology for TSA has evolved, there has also been increasing interest among applied researchers. Many behavioral interventions occur in applied settings such as businesses, schools, clinics, and hospitals. More traditional between-subject research designs might not always be the most appropriate, or in some instances, these designs can be very difficult to implement in such settings. In some cases, data appropriate for TSA are generated on a regular basis in the applied setting, like the number of hospital admissions. In other cases, a complete understanding of the process that can explain the acquisition or cessation of an important behavior might require the intensive study of an individual during an extended period of time. Advances in information systems technology have facilitated the repeated assessment of individuals in natural settings. In addition, there has been increasing concern about the appropriateness of group methods based on the ergodic theorems. The ergodic theorems state that an analysis of the interindividual variation yields the same results as an analysis of intra-individual variation only if the trajectory of each subject obeys the same dynamic laws (i.e., the same autocorrelation structure), and each individual trajectory has the same statistical characteristics (i.e., equal mean level and temporal pattern).
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- Descriptive Statistics
- Distributions
- Graphical Displays of Data
- Hypothesis Testing
- Alternative Hypotheses
- Beta
- Critical Value
- Decision Rule
- Hypothesis
- Nondirectional Hypotheses
- Nonsignificance
- Null Hypothesis
- One-Tailed Test
- p Value
- Power
- Power Analysis
- Significance Level, Concept of
- Significance Level, Interpretation and Construction
- Significance, Statistical
- Two-Tailed Test
- Type I Error
- Type II Error
- Type III Error
- Important Publications
- “Coefficient Alpha and the Internal Structure of Tests”
- “Convergent and Discriminant Validation by the Multitrait-Multimethod Matrix”
- “Meta-Analysis of Psychotherapy Outcome Studies”
- “On the Theory of Scales of Measurement”
- “Probable Error of a Mean, The”
- “Psychometric Experiments”
- “Sequential Tests of Statistical Hypotheses”
- “Technique for the Measurement of Attitudes, A”
- “Validity”
- Aptitudes and Instructional Methods
- Doctrine of Chances, The
- Logic of Scientific Discovery, The
- Nonparametric Statistics for the Behavioral Sciences
- Probabilistic Models for Some Intelligence and Attainment Tests
- Statistical Power Analysis for the Behavioral Sciences
- Teoria Statistica Delle Classi e Calcolo Delle Probabilità
- Inferential Statistics
- Association, Measures of
- Coefficient of Concordance
- Coefficient of Variation
- Coefficients of Correlation, Alienation, and Determination
- Confidence Intervals
- Margin of Error
- Nonparametric Statistics
- Odds Ratio
- Parameters
- Parametric Statistics
- Partial Correlation
- Pearson Product-Moment Correlation Coefficient
- Polychoric Correlation Coefficient
- Q-Statistic
- R2
- Randomization Tests
- Regression Coefficient
- Semipartial Correlation Coefficient
- Spearman Rank Order Correlation
- Standard Error of Estimate
- Standard Error of the Mean
- Student's t Test
- Unbiased Estimator
- Weights
- Item Response Theory
- Mathematical Concepts
- Measurement Concepts
- Organizations
- Publishing
- Qualitative Research
- Reliability of Scores
- Research Design Concepts
- Aptitude-Treatment Interaction
- Cause and Effect
- Concomitant Variable
- Confounding
- Control Group
- Interaction
- Internet-Based Research Method
- Intervention
- Matching
- Natural Experiments
- Network Analysis
- Placebo
- Replication
- Research
- Research Design Principles
- Treatment(s)
- Triangulation
- Unit of Analysis
- Yoked Control Procedure
- Research Designs
- A Priori Monte Carlo Simulation
- Action Research
- Adaptive Designs in Clinical Trials
- Applied Research
- Behavior Analysis Design
- Block Design
- Case-Only Design
- Causal-Comparative Design
- Cohort Design
- Completely Randomized Design
- Cross-Sectional Design
- Crossover Design
- Double-Blind Procedure
- Ex Post Facto Study
- Experimental Design
- Factorial Design
- Field Study
- Group-Sequential Designs in Clinical Trials
- Laboratory Experiments
- Latin Square Design
- Longitudinal Design
- Meta-Analysis
- Mixed Methods Design
- Mixed Model Design
- Monte Carlo Simulation
- Nested Factor Design
- Nonexperimental Design
- Observational Research
- Panel Design
- Partially Randomized Preference Trial Design
- Pilot Study
- Pragmatic Study
- Pre-Experimental Designs
- Pretest-Posttest Design
- Prospective Study
- Quantitative Research
- Quasi-Experimental Design
- Randomized Block Design
- Repeated Measures Design
- Response Surface Design
- Retrospective Study
- Sequential Design
- Single-Blind Study
- Single-Subject Design
- Split-Plot Factorial Design
- Thought Experiments
- Time Studies
- Time-Lag Study
- Time-Series Study
- Triple-Blind Study
- True Experimental Design
- Wennberg Design
- Within-Subjects Design
- Zelen's Randomized Consent Design
- Research Ethics
- Research Process
- Clinical Significance
- Clinical Trial
- Cross-Validation
- Data Cleaning
- Delphi Technique
- Evidence-Based Decision Making
- Exploratory Data Analysis
- Follow-Up
- Inference: Deductive and Inductive
- Last Observation Carried Forward
- Planning Research
- Primary Data Source
- Protocol
- Q Methodology
- Research Hypothesis
- Research Question
- Scientific Method
- Secondary Data Source
- Standardization
- Statistical Control
- Type III Error
- Wave
- Research Validity Issues
- Bias
- Critical Thinking
- Ecological Validity
- Experimenter Expectancy Effect
- External Validity
- File Drawer Problem
- Hawthorne Effect
- Heisenberg Effect
- Internal Validity
- John Henry Effect
- Mortality
- Multiple Treatment Interference
- Multivalued Treatment Effects
- Nonclassical Experimenter Effects
- Order Effects
- Placebo Effect
- Pretest Sensitization
- Random Assignment
- Reactive Arrangements
- Regression to the Mean
- Selection
- Sequence Effects
- Threats to Validity
- Validity of Research Conclusions
- Volunteer Bias
- White Noise
- Sampling
- Cluster Sampling
- Convenience Sampling
- Demographics
- Error
- Exclusion Criteria
- Experience Sampling Method
- Nonprobability Sampling
- Population
- Probability Sampling
- Proportional Sampling
- Quota Sampling
- Random Sampling
- Random Selection
- Sample
- Sample Size
- Sample Size Planning
- Sampling
- Sampling and Retention of Underrepresented Groups
- Sampling Error
- Stratified Sampling
- Systematic Sampling
- Scaling
- Software Applications
- Statistical Assumptions
- Statistical Concepts
- Autocorrelation
- Biased Estimator
- Cohen's Kappa
- Collinearity
- Correlation
- Criterion Problem
- Critical Difference
- Data Mining
- Data Snooping
- Degrees of Freedom
- Directional Hypothesis
- Disturbance Terms
- Error Rates
- Expected Value
- Fixed-Effects Models
- Inclusion Criteria
- Influence Statistics
- Influential Data Points
- Intraclass Correlation
- Latent Variable
- Likelihood Ratio Statistic
- Loglinear Models
- Main Effects
- Markov Chains
- Method Variance
- Mixed- and Random-Effects Models
- Models
- Multilevel Modeling
- Odds
- Omega Squared
- Orthogonal Comparisons
- Outlier
- Overfitting
- Pooled Variance
- Precision
- Quality Effects Model
- Random-Effects Models
- Regression Artifacts
- Regression Discontinuity
- Residuals
- Restriction of Range
- Robust
- Root Mean Square Error
- Rosenthal Effect
- Serial Correlation
- Shrinkage
- Simple Main Effects
- Simpson's Paradox
- Sums of Squares
- Statistical Procedures
- Accuracy in Parameter Estimation
- Analysis of Covariance (ANCOVA)
- Analysis of Variance (ANOVA)
- Barycentric Discriminant Analysis
- Bivariate Regression
- Bonferroni Procedure
- Bootstrapping
- Canonical Correlation Analysis
- Categorical Data Analysis
- Confirmatory Factor Analysis
- Contrast Analysis
- Descriptive Discriminant Analysis
- Discriminant Analysis
- Dummy Coding
- Effect Coding
- Estimation
- Exploratory Factor Analysis
- Greenhouse-Geisser Correction
- Hierarchical Linear Modeling
- Holm's Sequential Bonferroni Procedure
- Jackknife
- Latent Growth Modeling
- Least Squares, Methods of
- Logistic Regression
- Mean Comparisons
- Missing Data, Imputation of
- Multiple Regression
- Multivariate Analysis of Variance (MANOVA)
- Pairwise Comparisons
- Path Analysis
- Post Hoc Analysis
- Post Hoc Comparisons
- Principal Components Analysis
- Propensity Score Analysis
- Sequential Analysis
- Stepwise Regression
- Structural Equation Modeling
- Survival Analysis
- Trend Analysis
- Yates's Correction
- Statistical Tests
- Bartlett's Test
- Behrens-Fisher t′ Statistic
- Chi-Square Test
- Duncan's Multiple Range Test
- Dunnett's Test
- F Test
- Fisher's Least Significant Difference Test
- Friedman Test
- Honestly Significant Difference (HSD) Test
- Kolmogorov-Smirnov Test
- Kruskal-Wallis Test
- Mann-Whitney U Test
- Mauchly Test
- McNemar's Test
- Multiple Comparison Tests
- Newman-Keuls Test and Tukey Test
- Omnibus Tests
- Scheffé Test
- Sign Test
- t Test, Independent Samples
- t Test, One Sample
- t Test, Paired Samples
- Tukey's Honestly Significant Difference (HSD)
- Welch's t Test
- Wilcoxon Rank Sum Test
- z Test
- Theories, Laws, and Principles
- Bayes's Theorem
- Central Limit Theorem
- Classical Test Theory
- Correspondence Principle
- Critical Theory
- Falsifiability
- Game Theory
- Gauss-Markov Theorem
- Generalizability Theory
- Grounded Theory
- Item Response Theory
- Occam's Razor
- Paradigm
- Positivism
- Probability, Laws of
- Theory
- Theory of Attitude Measurement
- Weber-Fechner Law
- Types of Variables
- Validity of Scores
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