Delphi Technique

The Delphi technique is a group communication process as well as a method of achieving a consensus of opinion associated with a specific topic. Predicated on the rationale that more heads are better than one and that inputs generated by experts based on their logical reasoning are superior to simply guessing, the technique engages a group of identified experts in detailed examinations and discussions on a particular issue for the purpose of policy investigation, goal setting, and forecasting future situations and outcomes. Common surveys try to identify what is. The Delphi technique attempts to assess what could or should be.

The Delphi technique was named after the oracle at Delphi, who, according to Greek myth, delivered prophecies. As the name implies, the Delphi technique was originally developed to forecast future events and possible outcomes based on inputs and circumstances. The technique was principally developed by Norman Dalkey and Olaf Hel-mer at the RAND Corporation in the early 1950s. The earliest use of the Delphi process was primarily military. Delphi started to gain popularity as a futuring tool in the mid-1960s and came to be widely applied and examined by researchers and practitioners in fields such as curriculum development, resource utilization, and policy determination. In the mid-1970s, however, the popularity of the Delphi technique began to decline. Currently, using the Delphi technique as an integral part or as the exclusive tool of investigation in a research or an evaluation project is not uncommon.

This entry examines the Delphi process, including subject selection and analysis of data. It also discusses the advantages and disadvantages of the Delphi technique, along with the use of electronic technologies in facilitating implementation.