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Plea Bargaining

Plea bargaining is a process in a criminal case whereby the defendant agrees with the prosecutor to plead guilty (or no contest) in exchange for a reduction in charges or a reduction of sentence. By pleading guilty, the defendant gives up the right to go to trial. Contrary to the widespread belief that criminal cases are usually resolved through jury trials, in reality as many as 95% of criminal cases are handled by plea bargaining. This bargaining process has been viewed by some as a rational one in which the participants take into account both the probability of conviction and the likely sentence if the defendant were to be found guilty at trial; the participants arrive at a bargain that is fair to both sides. Critics of plea bargaining have focused on the flaws in the system that distort the process, such as heavy case loads, which cause prosecutors or public defenders to favor plea bargains over trials in almost all circumstances, regardless of the merits of the case. Additional causes for imperfect bargains involve psychological influences that lead to poor decision making. In spite of its importance to the criminal justice system, only a limited amount of research exists on the topic of plea bargaining.

Decision Theory Approach

Decision theory's concept of value maximization has been used to explain the plea bargaining decisions made by the prosecution and the defense. According to this model, both sides consider both the probability of conviction at trial and the severity of sentence given a jury finding of guilt; multiplying the probability of conviction by the sentence gives one the expected value of going to trial. The desirability of a plea bargain offer is based on its comparison with the expected value of going to trial. For example, consider a case in which, based on the evidence, there was a 50% chance that the jury would find the defendant guilty and, if found guilty, the sentence would be 10 years of imprisonment. The expected value of going to trial would be 5 years (.5 × 10 years). A plea bargain agreement of anything less than 5 years would be a good bargain for the defense, whereas anything over 5 years would be a good bargain for the prosecution. A bargain that would be acceptable to both sides would be close to 5 years. In a perfectly rational world, taking the case to trial and plea bargaining would have the same value, and one might expect the participants to be somewhat indifferent between trial and plea bargain.

Research has shown that plea bargaining participants do, in fact, consider the probability of conviction and the severity of the sentence. Plea bargaining decisions by prosecutors and the defense have been found to be influenced by both variables; however, these two variables alone do not suffice to explain the plea bargaining decisions. Other factors are involved.

Self-Interests of the Bargainers

Certain influences on plea bargaining that are exogenous to the merits of the case affect all the major participants—prosecutor, defense attorney/defendant, and judge. Each of these participants has self-interests outside the merits of the case that might distort the plea bargaining process.

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