Conspiracy Theories

Conspiracy Theories and Related Phenomena

Given that there is little research on conspiracy theories, it is worthwhile to consider the properties that most conspiracy theories share: Conspiracy theories are usually conceived as explanations for events that provoke widespread social anxiety and uncertainty, conditions under which people are eager for explanations; the content of conspiracies is emotionally laden and their discovery can be gratifying; the evidentiary standards for corroborating conspiracy theories is typically weak, but conspiracies that survive in the public consciousness are resistant to falsification; the survivability of conspiracy theories is aided by psychological biases and distrust of official sources; and conspiracy theories of one form or another are held by most people.

Conspiracy theories and rumors are examples of informal social communications. As such, they share several properties. First, rumors are particularly likely to flourish during periods of social uncertainty and anxiety. Indeed, rumor research began in the 1940s as rumors came to the attention of government officials who were concerned that they would undermine the war effort. Second, the definition of rumor, proposed by Robert Knapp as “a proposition for belief of topical reference disseminated without official verification,” is similar to but more general than the definition of conspiracy theories. Third, Knapp noted that the content of rumors expresses and gratifies collective emotional needs. This emotional dimension differentiates rumor from news. So, for example, the news that Churchill is now in Washington is likely to elicit little emotion compared with the rumor that the Jews are avoiding the draft. It is, of course, a small step to conclude that the latter rumor could blossom into a conspiracy.

Knapp showed that rumor content can be coded with respect to its emotional content. A sample of 1,089 rumors collected in 1942 showed that 2% were wish based (e.g., the Japanese do not have enough oil to last 6 months), 25% were fear based (e.g., the entire Pacific Fleet was lost at Pearl Harbor), 66% were hostile (e.g., that Churchill blackmailed Roosevelt into provoking war with Japan), and 7% escaped categorization. It is noteworthy that of all the rumors, 50% concerned intergroup tensions, and they were mostly antiadministration (i.e., government, army, and navy), anti-British, or anti-Semitic. The emotional content of rumor is suspiciously similar to that in conspiracy theories, and is predominantly focused on intergroup relations. Rumors are often slanderous, express intergroup hostilities, and scapegoat minority groups.

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