Unintended Consequences

When agents make decisions under conditions of uncertainty and under complex causal relations, their actions can have unintended consequences. These unforeseen outcomes can have profound implications for their own lives and the lives of others, even though the agents are not ordinarily thought to have power over those whom they affect.

The concept of unintended consequences was first defined by the sociologist Robert Merton and is applicable to a wide range of issues in the social sciences. They are usually considered to be a result of purposive action, which is action chosen to achieve a specific goal. But habitual action can also lead to unintended consequences. Imperfect information is one of the major reasons why unforeseen consequences emerge. Our actions often have effects that we are unable to predict because we do not understand the complex causal processes surrounding them. Our beliefs about what is the most effective course of action to bring about the preferred outcome may also be in error. Changed circumstances can alter the results of our habitual action, thereby leading to unanticipated outcomes. Human error can also be a cause of unintended consequences. We may misjudge our actions, or we might carry them out in a manner different from what we planned.

These unintended consequences can dilute agent's outcome power, as they do not have control over all the effects of their actions. At times, they might reach a different outcome from the one they wanted or add other, possibly undesirable outcomes to the one originally intended. Actions by the state often lead to unintended consequences that interfere with its power. This is due to the fact that state legislation and regulation are concerned with highly complex matters. A frequently cited example of how state regulation unintentionally can lead to an increase in undesirable behavior is the rise in organized crime during the Prohibition era in the United States.

The unintended consequences of one actor's actions might also empower or reduce the power of other actors in a way that does not necessarily affect their power. As an example, the highway system in New York was built in such a way that buses from poorer areas, where residents typically cannot afford cars, cannot pass beneath overpasses. While it is unlikely that this was part of the original plans, the construction of the highways has unintentionally reduced the power of those living in poor neighborhoods.

Unintended consequences are not always easy to identify. First, it is often difficult to know what actors' original objectives were. Second, unintended consequences are often the result of complex causal mechanisms, and it may be difficult to tell whether they result directly from an action. Often outcomes have multiple causes; for example, Prohibition was not the only reason for growth in organized crime.

Unintended consequences are problematic both for actors whose power relations they change and for scholars, as they complicate the task of identifying causal mechanisms and making predictions.