Systematic Luck

Systematic luck can be defined as consistently getting what is in one's interests because of the way society is structured, and getting this without being decisive. The term was first introduced in Keith Dowding's book Rational Choice and Political Power to explain why some groups tend to get their desired outcomes more often than their resources indicate they should. Their resources might give them the ability to get what they want if they act, but they also might get what they want anyway, without their actions decisively altering the outcome. This is a simple case of luck. The idea that grounds systematic luck is that the luck enjoyed in society is not altogether arbitrary. The reason for getting what one wants without trying is a systematic reason if it is tied to the social location one finds oneself in. Whether an actor is a capitalist, laborer, consumer, producer, developer, bureaucrat, slave, or president, if that position grants what is wanted more often than should expected by a combination of natural luck, resources, and intentional action, then the actor may be thought of as systematically lucky.

Dowding coined the term systematic luck for two reasons. The first was to defend a structural account of power that did not lead to a thesis of radical determinism. Dowding argues that power is based on the resources an actor can command. If an actor's resources indicate what he or she has the power to do, and if we equate power with success, then we should be able to determine how successful the actor will be. Here we have a thesis of radical determinism: one's resources determine [Page 654]one's success. This is not always the case, though, because some actors might be successful without having much in the way of resources, or even without acting at all. Two gold miners who command the same equipment and the same capacity to work might have varying degrees of success. What separates them is their brute luck. Luck is a theoretical concept used to explain this indeterminacy between power and success. It is not something that can be measured by empirical researchers: we can empirically measure resources—we can measure the wealth, income, education, and the reputation of actors—but there is no single empirical phenomenon that directly indicates luck. Positing luck as an explanatory device is one way to measure power without leading to radical determinacy.

Luck, as an explanatory term, must be refined to systematic luck when we think of power in the structural sense. Actors use social resources (as opposed to the natural resources of the miners) to entice other actors to behave in preferable ways. Social resources can be defined as means of enticement, and so must have value to other actors (as objects of want or respect). Governments, for instance, desire to develop their economies to secure the well-being of their populace, and so provide incentives such as low tax rates and less regulation to entice the investment of capital, which will often lead to more jobs and a better standard of living—one of the more valuable social resources. Capitalists who are already part of the economy gain from the low tax rates. They are simply lucky that the government's interests are in line with their own. It is the government that is utilizing resources (its legitimate authority) to bring about the mutually beneficial outcome, not the capitalists. This is luck in a systematic sense. Social resources are relatively enduring; there are few incentives for anyone who has power to change the allocation of resources, because the very reason they have this power is because of their resources. For example, a government has little incentive to change its status as a legitimate authority. Because resources are enduring, so too are the power structures that go with them. A government's legitimate authority is usually maintained by protecting the well-being of its community; this well-being, it is often said, requires economic growth. These structures constitute the social system. Therefore, the kind of luck applicable to a regular beneficiary of this system is systematic luck.

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