Civil War

Civil wars occur between different groups within a nation-state so that one group can take control of the apparatus of the state. Sometimes groups that want to secede part of the country from the nation-state also fight conflicts described as civil war. To distinguish civil wars from other disputes, conflicts, or terrorism within a state, most academics recognize that at least 1,000 casualties are required for a conflict to be termed a civil war. The number of conflicts deemed civil wars in the 20th century is much higher than in the preceding century, almost certainly because of the increase in the number of nation-states and because of the end of colonial empires in Africa and Asia. The cold war has also been a factor.

Academics studying civil wars have examined factors that are correlated with their onset and [Page 102]duration. These factors include aspects of the society in which civil war occurs and factors external to the country. Generally, we might see these factors as incentives to fight or not: the greater the costs of war, the lower the likelihood they will occur; the greater the benefits, both to participants and to outsiders, the more likely they are. Internal factors include levels of education, per capita income, and economic growth. The first two factors are related to the potential costs of civil war to participants. Better-off people have more to lose in conflict than do poorer people. Education, especially higher secondary school enrolment for boys, has been shown to be significantly related to civil war. Most soldiers are young men: those with higher levels of education have greater economic prospects and are less likely to be prepared to fight. Higher economic growth also increases future expectations, thus lowering the probability of conflict. Lower per capita income and lower growth might also be signs of grievance leading to higher probabilities of conflict. However, measures of economic inequality do not correlate with the probability of civil war, which suggests grievance over inequalities is not a straightforward cause.

Another cause of grievance is ethnic conflict, especially if one ethnic group feels it is being exploited by another. Again, economic growth might alleviate this tension, but not necessarily. The findings here are complex. Ethnic heterogeneity is not itself correlated with the probability of civil war; ethnic dominance, however, is. If one ethnic group comprises more than 50% of the population and there are large ethnic minorities, then civil war is more likely. There have to be two sides in a civil war, and forming coalitions of smaller groups against a dominant one can be problematic, as the dominant group can make side payments to keep some groups on its side. Furthermore, it is not always the largest ethnic group that is the dominant group controlling the state, which increases the risk of civil war further. The size of the population also increases the risk of civil war, though the smaller the population is, the less the likelihood of any conflict reaching the 1,000-casualty threshold. There is also a heritage effect, in that the longer since the last civil war, the lower the probability is of another one. Past grievance, especially from the losers, increases the probability of armed conflict occurring again.

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