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The spiral of silence theory, which was developed by German survey and communication researcher Elisabeth Noelle-Neumann in the 1960s and 1970s, is one of the most frequently cited and debated theories in the field of communication studies. Formulated against a backdrop of surprising election outcomes and group-dynamic processes during the era of student protests in Germany in the 1960s and 1970s, the theory attempts to describe collective opinion formation and societal decision making in situations where the issue being debated or decided upon is controversial and morally loaded.

In the literature in the field, the theory of the spiral of silence is often reduced to a single premise; that is, that people who feel their opinion is held by the minority tend to fall silent in public. Although this is a perfectly accurate description of one key aspect of the theory, it is in fact just one element of a far more comprehensive theory of how public opinion functions. In the context of the theory, the term public opinion refers to opinions or behavior that can be displayed or expressed in public without running the risk of social isolation or, in some cases, that even must be displayed to avoid the danger of isolation. Public is not meant in the legal sense (freely accessible to all) nor in the sense of a political category, in other words, as something that concerns the general public or society as a whole. Instead, the concept is interpreted from a social psychological perspective as a state of consciousness in which individuals, who are subjected to the gaze of those around them, consciously realize that their actions are “seen by all” and “heard by all” and must therefore constantly monitor the reactions of others in their environment. Accordingly, NoelleNeumann views public opinion as a form of social control that ultimately applies to everyone, regardless of social class, and that is apparent in many areas of life, ranging from controversial political issues to fashion, morals, and values. This understanding of public opinion stands in contrast to another conception which views public opinion as the result of rational debate among an educated elite that is of crucial importance for the state.

The theory of the spiral of silence must be viewed in the light of this social psychological understanding of public and public opinion. At the same time, the theory also rests on the notion that there is such a thing as a “social nature of man,” which causes people to fear social isolation and thus substantially influences their actions in public.

Origins of the Theory

The theory of the spiral of silence did not originate from abstract theoretical thinking, but from a surprising research finding for which a plausible explanation had to be found. This puzzling finding was encountered in connection with election research conducted during the 1965 German federal election campaign. Months before Election Day in September 1965, Noelle-Neumann and her staff at the Allensbach Institute for Public Opinion Research launched a series of surveys designed to track the entire campaign. Over the course of 10 months, from December 1964 to shortly before Election Day, the survey findings on voting intentions remained practically unchanged. Month after month, the two major parties, the governing Christian Democratic Party and the opposing Social Democratic Party, were in a dead heat, with about 45% of the population intending to vote for each party. Under these circumstances, it seemed impossible to predict which party was most likely to win the election. Throughout the entire campaign, the two parties remained locked in a neck-and-neck race.

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