Grassroots Campaigning

Incidence of Grassroots Campaigning

How often is grassroots campaigning used as a tactic? There are two methods of measuring the number of grassroots get-out-the-vote drives: survey data and group self-reports. Survey data suggests that in 2004, slightly more than half of the adult population reported some form of contact from a campaign, up from 40% in 2000. The raw numbers of group contacts in 2004 were 8 million door-to-door contacts by the Kerry-Edwards campaign, and more than 9 million by the Bush-Cheney campaign. Each of the respective campaigns was aided by groups that shared the candidates' respective ideologies. For example, the American Federation of Labor and Congress of [Page 283]Industrial Organizations (AFL-CIO) knocked on 6 million doors and made more than 100 million volunteer phone calls, while the U.S. Chamber of Commerce claims to have made more than 2.1 million phone calls to its members in eight targeted states.

Political scientists have attempted to count the number of groups that use grassroots lobbying by sampling groups and surveying group leaders. Some have estimated that 56% of groups surveyed regularly mobilize members, plus 38% of groups occasionally mobilize members. This is similar to earlier counts that found that 84% of groups surveyed ran letter-writing campaigns, while 80% used grassroots lobbying efforts.

Grassroots “Get Out the Vote” Campaigns

Early research on grassroots campaigning used surveys to determine the effectiveness of Get Out the Vote (GOTV). There are two problems with this approach. The first is that the method uses self-reports to determine voting behavior, which can be unreliable. The second problem is that endogenous variables can bias the results. That is, individuals who claim to have been contacted by a campaign may be more likely to turn out to vote for reasons not related to the campaign contact itself. Field experimental research has resolved these methodological problems by using public records to measure voter turnout behavior and by randomly assigning individuals to be contacted by a campaign.

Recent research has shown that more personal contacts are more successful than less personal attempts to get out the vote. The difference is so great that it is more cost effective to conduct door-to-door campaigns than direct mailings. For instance, Gerber and Green (2000) estimate that a door-to-door campaign costs $8 per additional vote, while a direct mail campaign costs about $40 per vote.

The research has consistently found that impersonal methods of contact are ineffective. Telephone calls made by commercial phone banks are ineffective at turning out voters, as are Robo or automated calls, or calls placed to households with a recorded message. Phone calls can be effective, but only if they are conducted by volunteers rather than a commercial phone bank. This last result seems to be because volunteers read the script for calls in a more conversational way than professional callers.

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