Threat Assessment

Efforts to identify the precursors of violence through a studied analysis of a perceived or real danger and then initiating an intervention process to stop violent acts before they erupt. Threat assessments are tools that can be useful in any relevant context. However, in the realm of international relations and geopolitics, the concept essentially refers to a situation in which studied and tactical responses are needed to counter threats posed by an individual, group, or country to harm the citizens or territory of another country. The nature of threats may emanate from an armed invasion, a nuclear threat, other weapons of mass destruction (including chemical and biological weapons), and, more recently, terrorism, which may use one or a combination of weapons and other nonconventional methods to attack its chosen targets.

Historical Background

Traditionally, the application of threat-assessment methodology has been more focused on individual systems and has been used primarily by law-enforcement and anticrime branches of government. However, with the onset of globalization, the spread of multidimensional dynamic systems, and the changing nature of domestic and international security threats, an expanded definition of threat-assessment methodology was required to address the new complexities. In this transitional phase, it is recognized that these threat assessments are part of a distinct and ongoing process; to identify new and changing threats effectively, continuous data gathering and analysis (intelligence) are required.

During the Cold War era, the geostrategic and political environment necessitated threat assessments on numerous occasions. The Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962 could well be considered among one of the most notable of these moments, when the United States was brought to the brink of a potential nuclear war because of a real threat posed by the placement of Soviet missiles in Cuba. However, the threat-assessment approach was not very well developed at that time, particularly in national defense and security ranks and institutions. During the past two decades, however, and particularly in the 1990s, this has changed with the unpredictable threat of terrorism across the globe, which has brought unparalleled international attention to the problem.

Terrorism and the Threat of Terrorism

In recent decades, terrorism has struck hard with a new and changing face. The United States has been among the main victims of terrorist attacks, many of which have taken place beyond the territorial boundaries of the nation.

In the past two decades, the United States has suffered the single largest number of terrorist attacks, along with concomitant loss of life and damage to national assets. The targets have included symbols and institutions that represent U.S. power or presence in some way across the globe.

The nature of such attacks is always uncertain, ranging from food poisoning in Oregon, to a truck bomb in Oklahoma, to suicide airline hijackings in New York and Washington, DC, to anthrax-laced letters in the District of Columbia.

In fighting terrorism, or any other threat, some of the questions that arise are: How credible and serious is the threat? To what extent does the threatening source appear to have the resources, intent, and motivation to carry out the threat? Determining the credibility and seriousness of the threat is complicated by the increasingly diffuse nature of attacks. For example, potential adversaries are more likely to strike vulnerable civilian or military targets in nontraditional ways in order to avoid direct confrontation with military forces, or to coerce governments to take some action that they desire, thus winning a symbolic or actual victory.

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