Nuclear Winter

Theory that nuclear war would result in major climatic and ecological changes. The theory of nuclear winter is attributed to scientist Carl Sagan and four coauthors in the 1983 article, “Global Atmospheric Consequences of Nuclear War,” which appeared in the journal Science. The article was written when the antinuclear movement was active and when Soviet and U.S. stockpiles of nuclear weapons were abundant. In subsequent years, the article has generally been referred to as TTAPS, an acronym derived from the last initial in each of the author's names.

The article envisions the aftermath of a nuclear war where, depending on the combined yield of the warheads used, a blast would generate significant amounts of dust into the air. The accumulation of dust and smoke into the atmosphere would create a blanket around the earth, preventing sufficient sunlight from entering the atmosphere. The authors argued that the lack of sunlight would precipitate a cooling that would lower the earth's temperature several degrees centigrade in a short period of time. It is believed that the change of one degree could have a serious effect on the environment. The article further posits that the cooling would affect agriculture and animal life, thereby contributing to a greatly diminished ecosystem. Subsequent to its printing, the nuclear winter theory has been the subject of vigorous debate.