Domino Theory

Political theory, espoused by the U.S. government during the Cold War, asserting that the communist takeover of a country would cause neighboring states to fall like dominoes under communist control. United States president Dwight D. Eisenhower first cited the domino theory to justify armed intervention abroad in preventing the spread of communism. The theory was later espoused by supporters of the U.S. role in the Vietnam War.

President Eisenhower first articulated the domino theory at a news conference on April 7, 1954. Focusing on the dangers of increasing communist power in Asia, the president claimed that the conquest of Indochina by the Soviet Union would result in the loss of Burma, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, and Indonesia. He argued that these conquests would give the Soviet Union a strategic geographical advantage in Southeast Asia. This, in turn, would allow the Soviet Union to take over Japan, Formosa, the Philippines, Australia, and New Zealand. Eisenhower stated, “The possible consequences of the loss are just incalculable to the free world.”

The origins of the domino theory are unclear, but it may well have been inspired by the emergence of the Soviet-dominated Eastern bloc following World War II. After the war, the Soviet Union installed friendly communist regimes in the Eastern European nations it occupied. This included the eastern portion of occupied Germany, as well as Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Poland, Romania, and Yugoslavia. The Soviets tightly controlled the governments of these states, which formed a defensive barrier between the Soviet Union and its foes in Western Europe.

Developments in Asia may also have played a role in shaping the domino theory. In 1949, communist forces under Mao Zedong defeated China's pro-Western nationalist government after years of civil war. The following year, communist North Korea invaded South Korea with tacit Soviet and Chinese support. Only a U.S.-led United Nations military intervention and a bitter three-year war saved South Korea from conquest.

In the final analysis, the domino theory proved to be incorrect. The communist takeover of South Vietnam in 1974 did not lead to the spread of communism throughout Southeast Asia. Neighboring Cambodia endured the reign of the communist dictator Pol Pot, but none of the other countries that Eisenhower saw as dominoes fell to communist revolution. Ironically, the only country that Vietnam invaded was its communist neighbor, Cambodia. The Vietnamese deposed Pol Pot in 1978 and occupied Cambodia until 1991. A peace settlement that year led to the withdrawal of Vietnamese troops and free elections in which Cambodia chose a democratic form of government. Vietnam remains the only communist country in the region.

Recently, the label domino theory has been applied to foreign-policy doctrine under the administration of President George W. Bush. The modern domino theory asserts that the United States can institute a wave of political reform (like a cascade of dominoes) in the Middle East by forcibly imposing democracy [Page 216]on undemocratic regimes. The Iraq War of 2003 and the subsequent occupation of that country is seen as the test of the theory.

Supporters of President Bush point to popular calls in Lebanon in 2005 for the resignation of the pro-Syrian prime minister and for the removal of Syrian troops, as evidence that the policy is working. Critics argue that the United States seems willing to pressure its foes in the region only to institute democratic change. They point out that many close U.S. allies in the Middle East—including two of the most influential Arab nations, Egypt and Saudi Arabia—have very repressive, unrepresentative governments. Yet so far the Bush administration has not pressed for reforms in either of these countries.

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