Market Projections

Products based on nanotechnology are expected to impact nearly all industrial sectors in the years to come, and will enter consumer markets in large quantities. Considering the future prospects of nanotechnology, countries across the world are investing heavily in this sector. Many factors influence the success or failure of any singular technology venture, and in the case of nanotechnology, so much is unknown that attempts to predict the future in this field are particularly subject to caution. However, some people believe that nanotech has the potential to trigger revolutions in, among other areas, materials, information and communication technology, medicine, and genetics. Over 1,000 consumer products incorporating nanotechnology are on the market as of 2009, according to the Project on Emerging Nanotechnologies, and the number is expected to continue to grow.

While no one can predict the future, it is a normal business practice to try to estimate the future value of technologies. The value of the nanotechnology market is estimated to grow from $14.5 billion in 2009 to over $30 billion in 2013, assuming a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of around 20 percent per year, fueled in part by massive investment in nanotechnology research and development (R&D) by governments and corporations worldwide. Under these assumptions, the market for nanotechnology incorporated in manufactured goods will be worth $1.6 trillion, representing a CAGR of more than 49 percent in the forecast period (2009–13).

Globally, the Asia-Pacific region will experience the fastest growth in the market for nanotechnology enabled goods, with a CAGR projected of around 52 percent in the forecast period, followed by Europe and the United States. Recent gains by emerging markets in India, China, and Russia in the field of nanotechnology R&D will continue to grow. Of course, all these figures are estimates based on assumptions which may or may not hold true in the future.

The greatest growth in market share is expected from sales of products incorporating nanotech rather than from the sales of the materials themselves. In 2014, 4 percent of general manufactured goods, 50 percent of electronics and IT products, and 16 percent of goods in healthcare and life sciences by revenue are estimated to incorporate emerging nanotechnology. The sales of products incorporating emerging nanotechnology is estimated to rise from less than 0.1 percent of global [Page 409]manufacturing output in 2004 to 15 percent in 2014, totaling $2.6 trillion, more that the combined values of the information technology and telecom industries, and 10 times more than biotechnology revenues.

Currently, electronics and IT applications dominate the nanotechnology market: microprocessors and memory chips already have new nanoscale processes implemented. It is expected that nanotechnology will become commonplace in manufactured goods by 2014. Healthcare and life sciences applications will become significant as nanoenabled pharmaceuticals and medical devices emerge from lengthy human trials. It is projected that 10 million manufacturing jobs worldwide in 2014 (11 percent of the total manufacturing jobs) will involve building products that incorporate emerging nanotechnology. Nanotechnology will shift market shares and introduce new unconventional competitors in conventional markets with a high entry barrier.

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