Joint Economic Committee, U.S. Congressional

History and Future

This report is concerned with the historical development, as well as future applications of nanotechnology. In addition to the four standard generations of technological progression, the report offers, in addition, a fifth prediction regarding the singularity.

According to the singularity, since scientific achievement progresses exponentially, a point is eventually reached in which scientific discoveries occur with a momentum which allows advances at an unprecedented level, resulting in technologies that may seem like science fiction. Artificial intelligence will likely have reached the point where computers enhance and accelerate scientific change, producing discoveries too complex for humans to create. In this way, the singularity will produce technological solutions to most of today's problems, such as material scarcity, environmental degradation, and human health. Though the singularity predicts rapid technological advancement, products will be somewhat slower to read the hands of consumers. This is due to the lag time between discovering and developing consumer products from the technology.

Possible Dangers

The report makes note of several possible scientific, environmental, and social dangers associated with future advanced research and development of products utilizing nanotechnology. The first concern is that nanodevices could get out of control. Because of their size, many individual nanodevices will be necessary to carry out any task. However, once released into the environment, it will be difficult to know exactly what happens to the nanomaterials. Further, self-replicating nanodevices may grow out of control, consuming the entire world's resources in the process. The report dismisses this worry, first because no one knows how to make self-replicating nanodevices, and because it's not clear how such devices would derive the energy to carry out such a process.

The second issue surrounds the vast amount of knowledge and information required to create such a technology, and the possibility that this knowledge could be used to intentionally release and spread new pathogens. Biological weapons are inexpensive to develop, and difficult to detect. The document acknowledges that this will be a concern that will need to be addressed, and yet indicates that the risk is worth the projected benefits of [Page 376]cures for cancer, and correcting environmental problems, and so on.

The final possible danger reflects the concern that intelligent and nanodevices may form intentions that are contrary to our own, and which may not act solely in our interest. The study dismisses this possibility as contrary to the history of technology. Furthermore, any danger that arises, it claims, can likely be overcome with additional technology. Finally, the fear of technology runs deeply throughout our history, and some institutions and industries have a special interest in thwarting technological advancement. However, regulation of this, and any, technology must weight the risks of any possible harms against the benefits, according to the study.

Policy and Regulation

Putting aside more existential threats to humankind, policy ought to be driven by the possible health risks associated with nanoparticles, according to the study which cites the National Nanotechnology Initiative. Nanoparticles may, for example, be small enough to unintentionally pass the blood-brain barrier, or could turn out to be carcinogenic. But while planning and preparing for these concerns is valuable, the report continues, realizing this goal may not be so easy. The equipment needed to test nanoparticles, for example, will have to be developed alongside the technology itself, as it does not currently exist.

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