Family and Marital Patterns

National Survey of Family Growth (2012)

On March 22, 2012, the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (USDHHS) released findings in its National Health Statistics Reports, “First Marriages in the U.S.: Data From the 2006–2010 National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG).” The study encompassed a nationally representative sample of 12,279 women and 10,403 men ages 15 to 44; the overall response rate was 77 percent (78 percent women and 75 percent men). The racial backgrounds of respondents were as follows: women: 6,156 (white), 2,723 (Hispanic), 2,412 (black), 988 (other), men: 5,275 (white), 2,406 (Hispanic), 1,752 (black), 967 (other). The survey was conducted through face-to-face hour-long interviews of individuals, not couples. The NSFG has been collecting data on factors affecting family formation, growth, and dissolution since 1973. The 2012 report focuses on first marriages.

Some of the NSFG findings are as follows: (1) Sixty-eight percent of unions formed between 1997 and 2001 began as cohabitations rather than as a marriage. (2) The percentage of women currently cohabitating with men in a sexual relationship rose from 3 percent in 1982 to 11 percent from 2006 to 2010. (3) Both men and women are entering first marriages later in life; the average age for men is 28.3 years of age while for women it is 25.8 years. (4) Marriages are not lasting “for a lifetime” or until “death do us part.” From 2006 to 2010 the probability of a first marriage lasting at least 10 years was 68 percent for women versus 70 percent for men. The probability that a marriage will last 20 years decreases to 52 percent for women and 56 percent for men. At 37 percent, black women had the lowest probability of marriage lasting for 20 years, and foreign-born Hispanic men had the highest probability at 70 percent.

Other findings are the following: (5) Both race and educational attainment play a significant role in the length of marriage: 78 percent of women with a B.A. degree were in 20-plus year marriages versus 41 percent with a high school diploma or GED, and 65 percent of men with a B.A. degree were in 20-plus year first marriages versus 47 percent with a high school diploma or GED. (6) The percentage of women who entered a first marriage decreased from 44 percent in 1982 to 36 percent from 2006 to 2010. During that same time period, the overall percentage of women cohabiting rose from 3 percent in 1982 to 11 percent. From 2006 to 2010, the racial breakdown of cohabiting women was 16 percent of foreign-born Hispanic women, 11 percent of white women, and 9.3 percent of black women. (7) The percentage of never-married women also rose from 34 percent [Page 41]in 1982 to 38 percent in 2006–10 (55 percent of black women, 49 percent of U.S.-born Hispanic women, 46 percent of foreign-born Hispanic women, 39 percent of U.S.-born Asian women, and 34 percent of white women). These figures show a statistically significant difference between racial classifications. (8) Another significant factor predicting marriage versus cohabitation was educational attainment (37 percent of women without a high diploma or GED were married versus 58 percent with a college degree versus 63 percent with a master's degree or higher; 66 percent of men with a master's degree or higher were married versus 49 percent of men with a B.A. versus 41 percent with a high school diploma or GED). There is a reverse correlation for cohabitation: 20 percent of women without a high school diploma or GED were cohabiting versus 6.8 percent of women with a B.A. degree; 9.6 percent of men with a B.A. degree were cohabitating versus 13 percent of men with a high school diploma or GED. In sum, 64 percent of college graduates marry versus 48 percent of those with a high school diploma. (9) Finally, the NSFG reports that the majority of couples have cohabited before they marry (approximately 57 percent of women versus 60 percent of men (cohabited but did not marry); 96 percent of women and 93 percent of men (cohabited and later married). Note that the nationwide percentage of women cohabiting rose from 3 percent in 1982 to 11.2 percent from 2006 to 2010. Unfortunately the data for men was not collected in 1982. However, the nationwide percent of men cohabiting did rise from 9.2 percent in 2002 to 12.2 percent in 2006–10.

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