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The word history comes from the German verb “to happen.” History is more than a name for what has already happened, however. One must not think of history simply as the sum of all past events. History is a story about those events. According to Eric Voegelin, the historian selects events that show a pattern. History itself is obviously incomplete; nobody knows how it ends, so nobody can know its meaning. Nonetheless, historians can detect patterns such as patterns of social and political change. Leadership appears to be part of those patterns and therefore is an element within history.

This is not to suggest that historians all see the same pattern. For instance, Oswald Spengler, Arnold Toynbee, and Voegelin made an effort to get away from the dominant view of history as a linear progression, from dark ages shrouded in myth toward enlightenment and ultimately some kind of future utopia. That pattern is simply inadequate, yet they disagreed among themselves about what to put in its place.

One reason for such disagreements is that historians begin from different assumptions. Hannah Arendt once explained that ancient history attempted to preserve the memory of human achievement against the ravages of time. Its subject matter tended to be extraordinary leadership worthy of preservation. In a world of fixed laws and unchanging nature, leadership was memorable and rare. Modern history takes a different approach. Because people tend to believe that nothing is fixed, modern historians attempt to describe the process by which things evolve. Leaders are part of a process. What they do is a process. The subject matter of modern history, therefore, is not the leader. Rather, it is the process in which leaders participate.

Since the eighteenth century, a number of historians have gone further, rejecting leadership because it is a guise for impersonal processes such as economic production, biological evolution, and disenchantment. Their creed is known as determinism.

The Challenge of Determinism

Determinism rejects the idea of leadership. A determinist might explain stories about leaders as childish personifications of abstract forces, psychological projections of frustration, or at most descriptions of a role that somebody was bound to play. For instance, if Napoleon Bonaparte had not become emperor of France in 1804, somebody else would have. At the least, a determinist will argue that a leader is merely a product of past circumstances and could not be other than a leader when circumstances become ripe.

In 1943, Sidney Hook claimed that most historians avoid the extremes of determinism because leaders and their circumstances work together to shape event; yet Fernand Braudel and contributors to the journal Annales continued to assault the “idea that history is best seen as a narrative of the deeds of individual political actors”—preferring instead impersonal forces and extended timelines measured in hundreds and thousands of years (Clark 1985, chap. 10).

Determinists argue that studying history through the lens of leadership oversimplifies reality. More is at work than the influence of certain prominent individuals, whether captains or kings. There are other factors. Historians distort their understanding when they pluck one thread from the fabric. A controversial claim along these lines is that leadership studies perpetuates a myth that individual human beings can make a difference; people are flattered to believe in human efficacy when we are, in the words of Leo Tolstoy, but history's slaves. Determinists are therefore unlikely to see the point in studying history as the record of leadership.

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