War and Peace

The 21st century has begun much as the 20th century ended: in war and armed conflict. Conflicts of many types, old and new, are under way in war zones such as Afghanistan, Iraq, Lebanon, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Sri Lanka, Colombia, Lebanon, Chechnya, and Sudan. The threat of war remains, but the nature of warfare is changing in tandem with often unforeseen geopolitical, technological, economic, and ethnic changes. According to the studies performed since 2005 by the Human Security Centre at the University of British Columbia, violence is in decline: In the past dozen years, there has been a significant decrease in violence as measured by the number of wars, genocides, and human rights violations.

Since the end of the Cold War, the number of armed conflicts has fallen by about 40% from about 50 in 1991 to about 30 in 2004. High-intensity conflicts (those that cause more than 1,000 battle-related deaths per year) are down 80%, also down are civil wars (80%), genocides (80%), major and minor terrorist attacks (50%), the number of refugees (45%), coups and attempted coups (60%), and international crises (70%). More than 100 conflicts have ended, including 70% of secessionist conflicts, and the average number of battle deaths per armed conflict decreased by 98%, from 38,000 in 1950 to 600 in 2002. (Iraq since 2003 is an exception to the trend.) There were 20,000 battle deaths in all wars combined in 2003, compared with 700,000 in 1950. In the 1990s, the ratio of battle deaths to population was a third of what it had been in the 1970s. However, these positive developments were mitigated by continued strife in some regions, particularly in Africa, where war is claiming more victims than on all other continents combined. But even in Africa, there are fewer armed conflicts today (about 10 compared with 15 per year 5 years ago). The number of African countries torn by armed conflict has therefore dropped by a third. During the same period, direct battle deaths have decreased in Africa by 24%.

At the dawn of the third millennium, inhabitants of the planet had an average risk of becoming a casualty of war of approximately 0.4%, compared with an average of about 1% between 1945 and 1990. People are much more likely to die of disease and pandemics (91%) or in car accidents (2%) than in a war. However, there is little cause for celebration, for armed conflicts that could, theoretically, have been prevented or controlled continue to claim hundreds of thousands of direct and indirect victims year after year. Of the 22 million people who have perished in armed conflicts since World War II, 5.5 million died between 1990 and 1995. The causes of conflict are far from being resolved, and the dangers attendant on conflict have by no means been eliminated, although they are perhaps being anticipated and managed more successfully. In short, it is too early to say that war is being eradicated or even curbed. Human insecurity remains a challenge and a serious danger. Many armed conflicts continue to rage with deadly consequences and wars that seemed to be coming [Page 2724]to an end have flared up again. In the wake of the genocides in Rwanda and Sudan, the civil war in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and the new outbreaks of violence in Ivory Coast, Somalia, and Angola, there is no guarantee that we will not witness other unexpected and tragic events in Africa. Interstate conflict also remains a possibility: For example, hostilities could break out between North and South Korea should the North Korean regime decide, despite the armistice, to attack the South; between China and Taiwan over the latter's desire to secede; between India and Pakistan over their long-standing dispute over Kashmir and recently because of terrorism; between Ethiopia and Eritrea over unresolved border disputes that caused 70,000 deaths between 1997 and 2000; in central and Western Africa, where internal chaos and quarrels between neighboring countries make for a dangerous mix; in the Persian Gulf, where the Kurdish question has yet to be settled in Iraq and between the countries in the region; and in Lebanon, as the Israeli intervention in the summer of 2006 demonstrated.

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