Predicting Success or Failure of Marital Relationships

Defining and Measuring Relationship Success and Failure

One measure of relationship success is whether the relationship persists over time or ends. Relationship dissolution refers to a relationship ending in separation or divorce; it is measured by assessing relationship status (intact or terminated). Assessing dissolution alone does not enable researchers to examine the process by which some relationships change from initially satisfying relationships to unions that dissolve. Thus, relationship success or failure is also defined in terms of how satisfied or dissatisfied each partner is with the relationship. Relationship satisfaction encompasses an individual's evaluations of and feelings about his or her relationship or partner. It is measured using self-report questionnaires in which individuals rate their level of satisfaction. Dissatisfying relationships are certainly at greater risk for dissolution; however, the association between relationship satisfaction and dissolution is not as strong as one might intuit. Dissatisfying relationships endure for many reasons, and satisfying relationships may dissolve in certain circumstances. Although couples vary widely, on average, the longer relationships persist, the more stable and less satisfying they become, reducing the correlation of satisfaction and stability as relationships develop. This suggests that relationship dissolution and satisfaction are distinct outcomes that should be investigated separately to fully understand the variables that predict relationship outcomes.

Importance of Predicting Relationship Outcomes

Gaining a better understanding of the factors that predict relationship outcomes is critical because relationship distress and divorce have negative consequences for children and adults. Divorced individuals experience higher rates of stress, depression, and other health problems than their married counterparts. Furthermore, children raised in families experiencing high levels of conflict suffer more conduct, psychological, social, and academic problems. As adults, offspring of divorced parents have more mental and physical health problems, as well as greater relationship distress and instability. The best interventions designed to prevent and treat relationship distress are those based on research identifying the factors that lead to relationship dysfunction.

Methodological Issues in the Prediction of Relationship Outcomes

The best way to predict relationship outcomes relies on longitudinal research designs, in which a sample of engaged or newlywed couples is tracked and assessed prospectively over time to measure changes in relationship satisfaction and status. Longitudinal designs are generally favored over retrospective designs, in which participants rely on their memory to report on past events, and cross-sectional designs, in which data are collected at only one point in time. The prospective nature of longitudinal designs largely solves memory problems associated with retrospective designs and enables a better understanding of developmental change, which is at the heart of predicting relationship outcomes. In other words, longitudinal designs provide an answer to the question, “Why do some relationships that start out so well fail?”

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