Marital Stability, Prediction Of

Demographic Predictors

One set of factors that researchers have used to predict divorce is demographic variables. Demographic variables categorize individuals into certain groups or populations and include characteristics such as occupation, geographic location, religion, age, and marital status. Researchers have found that race, gender, and levels of education are significant predictors of the risk of divorce over time. Specifically, research has found that African-American couples are more than twice as likely as are Caucasian couples to divorce. In addition, couples with lower levels of education, lower levels of income, couples starting marriage at younger ages, and couples starting marriage with children are also at significantly greater risk for divorce. As these demographic variables often go hand in hand with one another, the results with these various demographic markers highlight the risk associated with general socioeconomic disadvantage.

Personality Traits

Researchers have also focused on how the individual personalities that husbands and wives bring to relationships affect marital outcomes. Studies have consistently found that husbands and wives who have very negative and irritable personalities (a trait called neuroticism) tend to be less happy in their marriages and are more likely to divorce over time. Although neuroticism has shown the strongest long-term effects on relationships, a number of other personality traits have also been linked to relationship outcomes over time. Divorce tends to be slightly more likely for couples who have highly impulsive husbands (husbands who are more likely to act without thinking or are less able to inhibit themselves). Divorce tends to be slightly less likely in couples where spouses are highly agreeable (easy going and amiable) and conscientious. Thus, the personality traits that spouses bring into their relationships can sometimes place those relationships at greater risk for discord and divorce.

Feelings

Researchers have also examined affective factors such as passion, liking, trust, and emotional distress in predicting relationship outcomes. Specifically, high levels of emotional distress (a variable including many areas of psychological health including depression, anxiety, and hostility) around the time of marriage predict separation and divorce. Low levels of liking (positive impressions of a romantic partner) and low levels of trust at the time of marriage also predict more rapid relationship dissolution. Low levels of passion for one's partner at the time of marriage also predict earlier separation, but this result has only been found for women. This gender difference suggests that feeling passionate about one's spouse early in marriage might have different meaning for men and women. Drops in feelings of liking, trust, or love during the first 4 years in marriage also help to predict subsequent separation and divorce. Thus, feelings toward a relationship and toward one's romantic partner early in marriage can help to identify the couples who will separate and even end their relationships.

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