Skip to main content icon/video/no-internet
icon backReturn to Entries

Demographic Transition

Developed by several demographers during the 1920s, the demographic transition theory stands as an important alternative to Malthusian notions of population growth. Essentially, this is a model of a society's fertility (birth rate [BR]), mortality (death rate [DR]), and natural population growth rate (NGR) over time, using the simple relationship NGR = BR – DR. Because this approach is based explicitly on the historical experience of Western Europe and North America as they went through the Industrial Revolution, “time” in this conception is a proxy for industrialization. This approach can be demonstrated with a graph of birth, death, and natural growth rates over time that divides societies into four major stages (Figure 1).

Stage I: Preindustrial Economy

In the first stage, a traditional, rural, preindustrial society and economy, fertility rates are high and families are large and extended. In agrarian economies, children are a vital source of farm labor, helping to plant and sow crops, tending to farm animals, performing chores, carrying water and messages, and helping with younger siblings. Children also take care of their elderly parents. In societies with high infant mortality rates, having many children is a form of insurance that some proportion will survive until adulthood. Thus, the distribution of birth rates around the world reveals that the poorest societies have the highest rates in the world, particularly in Africa and most of the Middle East. In contrast, birth rates in North America, Europe, Russia, Japan, Australia, and New Zealand are relatively low.

However, in preindustrial societies, mortality rates also are typically quite high, meaning that average life expectancy is relatively low. The primary causes of death in poor rural contexts are the result of inadequate diets, unsanitary drinking water, and bacterial diseases. Thus, the world geography of death rates closely reflects the wealth or poverty of societies. Because both fertility and mortality rates are high, the difference between them—natural population growth—is relatively low, often fluctuating around zero. Although relatively few societies in the world live in these circumstances today, Stage I may describe certain tribes in parts of Central Africa, Brazil, and Papua New Guinea.

Stage II: Early Industrial Economy

The second stage of the demographic transition pertains to societies in the earliest phases of industrialization, such as 19th-century Britain and the United States, or selected countries in the developing world today, such as Mexico. Early industrial societies retain some facets of the preindustrial world, particularly high fertility rates. Because most people still live in rural areas, children remain an important source of farm labor. The major difference is the decline in mortality rates, leading to longer life expectancies. Mortality rates decline as societies industrialize, not primarily because of better medical care but rather because of improved food supplies due to the industrialization of agriculture that played a major role in improving immune systems, including lowering infant mortality rates. Because the death rate has dropped but the birth rate has not, the natural growth rate grows explosively, a situation evident in a great number of countries in the developing world today (Figure 2).

...

  • Loading...
locked icon

Sign in to access this content

Get a 30 day FREE TRIAL

  • Watch videos from a variety of sources bringing classroom topics to life
  • Read modern, diverse business cases
  • Explore hundreds of books and reference titles

Read next

More like this

Sage Recommends

We found other relevant content for you on other Sage platforms.

close

Have you created a personal profile? Login or create a profile so that you can save clips, playlists and searches

close
close
close Signed In to profile You are signed in as:
close
Logged in Institution Institution