Disappearing Middle

The “disappearing middle” is a phenomenon in which the extremes of a spectrum grow at the expense of the middle. Mathematically, the disappearing middle represents a shift from a bell curve—where most of the population is grouped somewhere in the middle range—to a well curve, where the middle is less populated than the extremes. The phrase is used in the discussion of many such phenomena, often in reference to economics and economic behavior, but not always. In American politics, especially in Congress, the disappearing middle between the left and right has been a much commented on trend dating from the reorganization of the right in the aftermath of Watergate. When liberals move to the right or conservatives to the left—both moving toward the moderate middle—they are likely to lose their seat. Democrats running against a moderate Republican can point out that the Republican candidate is “still too conservative;” fellow Republicans running against the moderate Republican in the primary can argue that their moderate opponent has lost sight of party goals by compromising with the Left. Bit by bit, the middle shrinks, strengthening the extremes. This distribution is also sometimes called “bimodal.”

The phenomenon is visible in many areas of life, some of them likely interconnected. Perhaps in part because of the Internet, which provides opportunities for small business while globalization encourages a new wave of massive mergers, companies are getting both smaller and larger—the number of small and large companies is growing, whereas the number of midsized companies is falling. We see this in the retail field, as well, as Blockbuster, Wal-Mart, and Barnes and Noble continue to expand at the “big” end of the scale, as do the smaller specialty stores that do not compete with them so much as supplement them: video stores specializing in independent movies (and Greencine, an indie and multiregion DVD mail-in service supplementing Netflix's coverage), boutique shops, and science fiction bookstores. Meanwhile, the midsized stores that would constitute direct competition with the megachains are on the decline. Even the price of the items we buy is experiencing a shift to the well curve, as more and more $100 hamburgers make headlines—even as chain restaurants play up their dollar menus—and as HDTV becomes the new standard, with bigger and bigger televisions becoming common, making the tiny television-watching screens of cell phones and handheld computers seem even smaller in comparison, and the middle drops away as the “starter television” of years past disappears from shelves. In many industries, consumers are shying away from the middle ground while buying up the expensive premium items and the cheap discount items.

Though it is not as pronounced, the effect is noticeable even with nation-like entities, as the years since the end of the Cold War have seen an increase in multinational state-like organizations like the European Union (which are far stronger than the treaty organizations of the Cold War) and in small independent states, whereas midsized European nations are actually declining in population.

Much of the focus on the disappearing middle is in reference to incomes. Although American incomes had, at the time the global financial crisis began, been steadily rising across the board, the top and bottom tiers were growing fastest, with fewer and fewer individuals and families in the middle of what was once a well-defined bell curve. The adage “the rich get richer and the poor get poorer” is an old one—President Andrew Jackson referred to it in 1832—and in the current generation in the United States it is proving true, as the middle class loses members to the growing numbers of working poor, and the upper-upper class continues to accumulate more and more wealth. The trend of [Page 134]extraordinary corporate welfare in the 21st century, however necessary it may have been for the common good, certainly contributes to this, as profits remain privatized but losses are socialized through bailouts and the use of the taxpayer as the lender of last resort.

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