Adoption-Diffusion

Adoption and diffusion are processes by which an idea or product traverses from introduction to ubiquity. These processes are important in various fields of study, and generally diffusion focuses on the market, while adoption focuses on the individual's attitude toward the idea or product. Everything new begins in obscurity, rarity—even something highly anticipated is not adopted overnight by the general population. In economics and business, it is often critical to have a sense of how quickly a new consumer technology like DVD players will catch on. Some ideas and products, of course, never become ubiquitous; some barely move away from obscurity; others may shift back and forth along this imaginary spectrum, as record players traversed a path from luxury item, to household appliance, to specialist item for audiophiles, once the bulk of the market had moved on to digital media.

These processes have been described in a number of ways. In discussion of the diffusion of products, the “trickle-down effect” is often mentioned; this phenomenon occurs when an initially expensive product can at first be purchased only by the wealthy, but eventually becomes affordable for the general public. Sometimes this is because the cost of intensive research must be recouped, while actually producing the product is inexpensive in comparison; often it is because of economies of scale that make the per-unit cost of a product significantly lower when it's being made in large quantities. The trickle-down effect is especially noticeable in consumer technologies.

The two-step flow model introduced by Columbia University sociologists Paul Lazarsfeld and Elihu Katz privileged human agency over those simple economic factors, and described diffusion of information and adoption of ideas from the perspective of media influence. Information dispersed by the media travels to opinion leaders—those who pay the most attention to media outlets—and from them to their social and professional circles. Opinion leaders are those whose preferences are most likely to guide those around them, those who are perceived as being “in the know.” Most people have a friend who is “the music guy” or “the computer expert,” an opinion leader they count on.

The two-step flow model influenced the diffusion of innovations theory as articulated by Ohio State University sociologist Everett Rogers, who was an assistant professor when he wrote his textbook Diffusion of Innovations. Essentially a very good aggregator and reconciler of information, Rogers—whose book became one of the cornerstone texts of sociology—took over 500 studies of diffusion and from them generalized a deeper and [Page 2]more developed theory than had previously been available. Rogers focuses on human agency even more than Lazarsfeld and Katz do, dividing the populace into five categories of adopters, in order of when they are likely to adopt a new idea or product:

• 1.
  Innovators are highly social risk-takers with considerable financial, social, and scientific or commercial resources. Very few people are considered innovators (Rogers estimates them at about 2.5 percent of the population; however, his concepts are more useful than the accuracy of his bell curve).
• 2.
  Early adopters (13.5 percent) are typically young, well-educated, highly social opinion leaders. The idea of the early adopter has taken on a popularity that has outpaced Rogers' work, and our 21st century idea of the early adopter as the beta-tester of software, the first to switch to cruelty-free soap and a low-carbohydrate diet, first in line to purchase the new iPhone, is true in spirit to Rogers' early adopter, but doesn't always match Rogers' descriptions.
• 3.
  The early majority (34 percent) represents many of the rest of us, reasonably social and reasonably well educated, possibly opinion leaders. Those who are part of the early majority with respect to one idea or product may often be an early adopter with respect to others, but in general wait for the thing to prove itself, to show that it isn't a fad, that it's “here to last.”
• 4.
  The late majority (34 percent) have little opinion leadership and are skeptical of innovation, often making a switch only in response to other pressures (changing diet in response to the preferences of others in the household or doctors' orders). Their financial situation may discourage innovation or chasing trends; their lower education may prevent them from being aware of the fast-paced exchange of ideas in the world.
• 5.
  Laggards are the last to adopt, and in Rogers's model, they are also the oldest group, focused on tradition, social only with established close friends and family members, with little money to burn. This is the stereotypical grandparent whose VCR's clock is still flashing 12:00, and who, for that matter, still uses a VCR.

The five types of adopters also constitute what is sometimes called the technological adoption lifecycle. Diffusion of innovations theory essentially incorporates the two-step flow model to describe how ideas are transmitted among these groups.

...