Uzbekistan

UZBEKISTAN IS LOCATED in central Asia, south of Kazakhstan. It is one of the world's two doubly-landlocked countries, being totally surrounded by other landlocked countries. The terrain is mostly rolling desert, with about 10 percent of the land lying within fertile river valleys. Poor conservation practices during the Soviet era had already caused enormous environmental damage, and many believe that this damage will exacerbate the effects of climate change in coming years.

The Aral Sea, which Uzbekistan shares with neighboring Kazakhstan, is one of modern history's great environmental disasters. The inland sea is over 5 million years old and used to be the world's fourth largest lake; today it is the world's eighth largest and is shrinking fast. During the Soviet era, massive amounts of water were diverted to irrigate crops, both from the Aral itself and from its feeder rivers. At the same time, it was used as a dumping ground for pesticides, raw sewage, and even nuclear waste.

Over the last two decades, 90 percent of the lake's source flow has dried up. Its surface area has decreased by 50–60 percent, and it has lost 80 percent of its volume. Salinity has increased from 10 grams per liter in 1960 to over 45 grams per liter in 2000. Many fish populations within the lake have long since died out. The lake has shrunk so much that it has actually split into separate parts, which had to be reconnected with a man-made channel.

Climate change will have an equally negative effect on the Aral. The glaciers that form an important part of the Aral Sea Basin shrank by 34 percent between 1960 and 2000. Runoff from mountain snow packs and annual rainfall has also decreased. The Amudarya River, a critical irrigation source, has decreased in flow to the point that it no longer reaches its outlet on the Aral.

Climate models expect the country's two main climate zones, the dry/tropical and moderate zones, to shift 93 to 124 mi. (150 to 200 km.) to the north by 2100. Air temperature is expected to increase by between 2.7–3.6 degrees F (1.5–2 degrees C). In the initial phases, the shift in climate zones and increased temperature, along with higher atmospheric concentrations of CO2, might help the country's agricultural output, but with water sources already strained, that increase will be shortlived. Warmer temperatures and less water will damage the fertility of the grasslands, increase desertification, and reduce the country's livestock population.

Uzbekistan has a population of about 28 million people and is not a significant contributor to global carbon emissions. In 1998, per capita emissions were about 4,600 metric tons. About 80 percent of these emissions came from the release of gaseous fuels, 16 percent from liquid fuel sources, and 5 percent from cement manufacturing and solid fuel use.

The Uzbeki government has worked to study the potential effects of climate change and to raise public awareness of the problem. It is currently formulating plans to change damaging agricultural and industrial practices and move toward more sustainable growth.