Tajikistan

TAJIKISTAN IS LOCATED in Central Asia, east of China, It is a landlocked country dominated by the Pamir and Alay mountain ranges, with the highest peak being over 7,200 m. (23,600 ft.) high. The valley floors are considered a continental climate zone, whereas the mountains range from semiarid to polar. Climate change has begun to affect the lives of many of the country's seven million residents, particularly those who live in the mountain zones.

According to modeling scenarios published by the government, Tajikistan should see an average temperature increase of 3,2–5,2 degrees F (1,8–2,9 degrees C) by the year 2050, Mean monthly temperature increases varied within the models, but at least one showed a sharp increase in February and March temperatures of 8,5–8,8 degrees F (4,7–4,9 degrees C) over historical averages. Precipitation should increase by 3–26 percent by 2050 in most regions, with several models showing an average increase of 14 percent in the mountains and 18 percent in the valleys. More frequent rainfall will increase soil erosion in the main agricultural sectors.

Six percent of Tajikistan is covered with glaciers, and they are receding at an increasingly worrisome pace. Several thousand small glaciers will vanish entirely by 2050, and the major glacier fields will shrink by 15–20 percent. Over the course of the 20th century, the massive Garmo glacier retreated by 4,3 mi, (7 km.) and shrunk in area by 2,3 mi, (6 sq, km.); the 43,5 mi.-long (70-km.) Fedchenko glacier has retreated 0,6 mi, (1 km.) in length and lost 0,85 mi, (2 sq, km.) of thickness in recent years.

Water flow in the major river basins is expected to decrease by an average of 7 percent by 2050, With increased snowfall in the mountains and the melting of glaciers, the spring floods are anticipated to increase in duration. At the same time, reduced water flow will have a severe effect on irrigation and hydroelectric power production. Mountain villages are already feeling the effects of the changing climate. Over the last few years, mountain communities have seen increased snowfall, which leads to the closure of mountain roads for longer and longer periods and causes severe flooding and landslides when the snows melt. New precipitation patterns, characterized by unusually heavy downpours, have led to flash flooding and crop loss as fields are washed away.

Tajikistan is not a major contributor to global emissions, expelling just 5.1 million metric tons of CO2 in 1998. Of this, 67 percent came from liquid fuels, 29 percent from gaseous sources, and 4 percent from solid fuels. The government of Tajikistan has developed a national mitigation plan as part of their participation [Page 948]in the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, pledging to support sustainable agricultural practices, the development of renewable energy sources, the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, and the protection and development of carbon sinks for mitigation.