Sweden

SWEDEN IS ONE of the few nations expected to meet or exceed its target according to the Kyoto Protocol and is lauded as one of the countries that has adopted the most stringent measures to address global warming on the basis of emission levels and trends and climate policy. Since 2000, greenhouse gas emissions in Sweden have been an average of 3.7 percent below levels in 1990 and are expected to be 4 percent lower in 2010. This meets Sweden's national target of reducing emissions by 4 percent between 1990 and 2012. [Page 944]

A traditional windmill in southern Sweden. Sweden has invested heavily in the development of wind and water power plants.

Sweden has committed to becoming the worlds first oil-free nation by 2020. The Swedish Governments Commission on Oil Independence proposed measures necessary to eliminate Sweden's dependence on fossil fuels for transport and heating and promotes the use of renewable alternatives. In 1970, 77 percent of Sweden's energy came from oil, but this amount decreased to 32 percent by 2003. Nuclear power will be phased out, and Sweden has invested heavily in the development of wind and water power plants. Innovative programs including the use of boilers that use wood-based pellets have dramatically decreased the use of oil for home heating, and tax exemptions enabling drivers to use ethanol-based fuel have increased compliance among residents. Sweden's climate strategy involves partnerships between the business community, scientists, and politicians.

Recent modelling scenarios indicate an increase in annual mean temperature in Sweden of between 4.5–8.1 degrees F (2.5–4.5 degrees C) by 2100, with a greater increase in temperature and rate of precipitation during the winter than the summer. Specific effects include flooding resulting from increased precipitation and heavier rainfall. Summer drought and water shortages are expected in southern Sweden because of changes in precipitation rates and increased evaporation. Although the flora and fauna of Sweden may be enriched by a number of southern species, northern species and those indigenous to the Baltic Sea region will be displaced.

Agricultural yields are likely to benefit from warmer temperatures, with extended growing periods and better conditions for cultivation leading to increased harvest yields of around 20 percent and an increased number of commercial crops. A warmer climate would result in elevated levels of pests and disease, leading to the more frequent usage of pesticides. Anticipated changes in temperature and salinity in the Baltic Sea are expected to have an adverse effect on species of importance to the fisheries sector such as Baltic herring, cod, salmon, turbot, and plaice. Species composition is expected to shift as new fish and shellfish species are introduced from the south. Reduced sea-ice cover may also have an adverse effect on reproduction for flatfish, whereas warm-water species such as pike, perch, and carp may benefit from higher water temperatures.