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FIRST DESCRIBED EXTENSIVELY by British meteorologist Sir Gilbert T. Walker in the 1920s, the Southern Oscillation refers to the periodic exchange of mass across the equatorial Pacific that is recorded in sea level pressure fluctuations between the eastern and western Pacific. Under normal conditions in the tropical Pacific, surface high (low) pressure prevails in the eastern (western) Pacific, with the easterly trade winds dominating surface wind and ocean flow.

This pressure pattern, also known as the Walker circulation, tends to support rising air motions and convectional precipitation near eastern Australia, as well as sinking air motions and dry conditions near coastal northern Peru. Every two to seven years, this generalized atmospheric surface pressure pattern weakens as equatorial Pacific air pressure rises in the west and lowers in the east. This shift in the pressure field considerably weakens the trade winds and promotes the eastward movement of warm surface water across the tropical Pacific. The associated abnormal warming in the eastern Pacific is known as El Nino. Because the reversals in pressure and associated ocean temperature fluctuations are often simultaneous, this coupled climate variability between the tropical Pacific Ocean and atmosphere is often collectively referred to as the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

Measuring Southern Oscillation

The mode and relative strength of the Southern Oscillation during a given time period is determined using one of several indices that signifies changes in the Walker circulation. A relatively simplistic and common method employed to gauge this change is the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), which measures the monthly or seasonal sea level pressure differences between two stations, one located in the central Pacific at Tahiti and the other in the western Pacific at Darwin, Australia. Negative SOI values result from abnormally low pressure occurring in Tahiti and high pressure occurring at Darwin, which tends to indicate an El Nino episode; positive SOI values indicate the cold phase of ENSO, or La Nina. The sea level pressures at these two stations thus are negatively correlated and are associated with significant, yet contrasting shifts in regional temperature and precipitation patterns. Some of the most severe Australian summer droughts and heat waves (e.g., in 1983) have been associated with a strongly positive SOL

ENSO events often affect the temperature and precipitation regimes in tropical regions. The magnitude of these effects differs with the intensity of individual ENSO events. Climatic anomalies associated with ENSO s warm phase in other tropical regions include dry summers and autumns for northern South America, Central America, and southeastern Africa (including Madagascar), as well as less rainfall during the Indian monsoon. Drier-than-normal conditions negatively affect crops—a particularly serious concern in developing regions. Such atmospheric conditions are also conducive to the threat of wildfires. Wetter conditions pervade the Chilean coast, as well as parts of east-central Africa.

Effects of ENSO

Despite being primarily a tropically located phenomenon, ENSO also has extensive effects on extra-tropical global precipitation and temperature variability. This is achieved, in part, by shifts in storm tracks. Changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation include deviations from the normal jet stream paths and persistent pressure systems, which in turn steer storms in new directions. During the warm ENSO phase in winter, a deepened Aleutian Low moves southeast of its average position. This is coupled with a strong subtropical jet stream and a weak polar jet stream over eastern Canada, setting up the circulation pattern that redirects storms into the southern United States. The winter cold ENSO phase is characterized by a blocking high forming in the Gulf of Alaska and a split polar jet. The main branch flows from Alaska and northern Canada south toward the western and northern United States; the jet's southern branch moves from the Pacific Ocean toward the Pacific Northwest.

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