Risk

RISK IS A concept that captures the probability and, in some instances, the potential severity of the occurrence of a negative outcome (that is, being exposed to a hazard). There is much discussion surrounding the various risks associated with global warming and climate change, such as those related to the environment, ecosystem, human health, and the world economy. In this regard, various experts have used risk analysis to assess, manage, and communicate these associated risks.

Global warming occurs as a result of the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. These greenhouse gases occur both naturally (such as water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane, and ozone) and as a result of human activity (for example, from the burning of fossil fuels, deforestation, and the use of chlo-rofluorocarbons and fertilizers). The latter has been the focus of a 2007 report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). This has led to a great deal of discussion surrounding the various policy implications that lie ahead.

There are several environmental risks associated with global warming and climate change—some of which have been noted by researchers worldwide as already occurring, and others that have been forecast. Climate change affects countries differently depending partly on their geographical location.

The record high temperatures documented over the past two decades have resulted in early ice thaw on rivers and lakes. Furthermore, the rates of sea-level rise are expected to continue to increase as a result of both the thermal expansion of the oceans and the partial melting of mountain glaciers and the Antarctic and Greenland ice caps. It has been reported that increasing temperatures have also been the cause of many extreme weather events such as heat waves, droughts, and wildfires.

Moreover, changes to ocean temperatures and wind patterns have resulted in more frequent and intense rain and ice storms, floods, and some natural disasters such as hurricanes and typhoons. An increase in the frequency and severity of disasters can lead to secondary effects such as massive mudslides—as was the case with Hurricane Mitch in 1998. They can also have far-reaching effects that can result in a loss of livelihood, displacement, as well as local and global migration, particularly for those living in communities in the most vulnerable areas (such as low-lying coastal areas and estuaries, alpine regions, and tropical and subtropical population centers). Additionally, these risks can be exacerbated for marginalized groups as well as those living in more vulnerable communities (for example, regions that are poverty laden or more crowded).