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CLIMATE MODELS ARE computer simulations representing the Earth in layers and boxes. These models use complex mathematical equations to determine future climate possibilities based on parameters of baseline conditions and changing variables, like increased greenhouse gases, and rising temperature. The equations in the separate cells are used to mathematically calculate numerous conditions including the flow of heat, moisture, sunlight, wind, and the condition of the adjacent cells. Early climate models provided uncertain projections because the equations failed to include the dynamics of the little-understood ocean circulation. Two-thirds of the Earth is covered by ocean, which acts as a heat reservoir and a heat transport system; changes in the ocean can cause widespread changes in climate. Every few years, a warming of the eastern Pacific near the equator creates El Nino conditions, altering rainfall and temperature patterns.

The ocean plays a central role in climate variability, modifying the flux of heat into the atmosphere, stimulating changes in the atmospheric circulation, which, in turn, modify the general circulation of the ocean. Studies of annually-averaged air-sea heat exchange have shown that a large transfer of heat from the ocean to the atmosphere occurs downstream from the subtropical western boundary currents.

Examples of Models with Ocean Components

The addition of ocean circulation to climate models is the result of numerous studies that determined the circulation patterns of the ocean with fluid motion. These include the World Ocean Circulation Experiment, with nine years (1990–98) of observations (physical, chemical, and satellite), by approximately 30 nations to determine the baseline conditions for assessing future climate change. The second phase of the World Ocean Circulation experiment was Analysis, Interpretation, Modeling, and Synthesis, ending in 2002, Sophisticated numerical ocean models were also developed to provide a framework for the interpretation of the observations and for the prediction of the future ocean state.

The World Climate Research Programme is studying climate variability and predictability (CLIVAR), with research focusing on interactions between the ocean and the atmosphere and collaboration with companion research projects to study the role of the land surface, snow, ice, and stratospheric processes in climate.

The Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment (GODAE) began in 1997, to develop better ocean observations and ocean forecasts utilizing improved technology (in-situ and remote) to observe, measure, model, and assimilate data available worldwide to researchers needing comprehensive ocean and marine data and forecasts.

The Argo project, begun in 2000, deploys 3,000 profiling floats (spaced approximately 3 degrees apart throughout the worlds oceans) to collect temperature, velocity, and salinity measurements on the physical state of the upper ocean, with emphasis on seasonal and decadal variability. The collected data will be used for initializing ocean and coupled ocean-atmosphere forecast models, data assimilation, and model testing.

With increasing data on ocean physics, chemistry, and biology, improved models are being created, incorporating the ocean component into computer models, and using more complex computing systems. The Parallel Ocean Program is a publicly available model developed at Los Alamos National Laboratories, using ocean circulation with depth as the vertical coordinate. Researchers, in adapting the Parallel Ocean Program for parallel computers to improve performance, also enhanced the models physical representation of the real ocean. Higher resolution simulations have shown greater agreement with observations of sea-surface height variability in the Gulf Stream.

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