Kyrgyzstan

KYRGYZSTAN IS LOCATED in Central Asia, west of China, with which it shares its dominant geological feature: the Tien Shan mountain range. The former Soviet state has a varied climate, ranging from subtropical to polar, but most of the country is arid, high mountain terrain. Over 45 percent of Kyrgystan sits at elevations that make it uninhabitable to humans. Of the remaining 54 percent, only 19 percent of the land [Page 591]is considered comfortable for human habitation. Government researchers have found that, over the past 100 years, average temperatures in Kyrgyzstan rose by 2.8 degrees F (1.6 degrees C) (much higher than the global average of 1 degree F, or 0.6 degrees C). Precipitation rose only 6 percent during the same period. Scientists project temperature rises of between 3–8 degrees F (1.8–4.4 degrees C) by 2100, and projected precipitation increases of 6–54 percent, depending on the modeling program used.

In 2002, researchers announced that Issyk-Kul, the world's ninth-largest lake and second-largest saline lake, was showing a marked rise in water levels and temperature. This was shocking to many experts, who had seen the lake shrinking 1926–98, and expected that trend to continue. However, in 1998–2002, the lake level rose 10 in. (26 cm.).

This was deemed an extraordinary rise for a body of water that covers 2,317 sq. mi. (6,000 sq. km.). Temperature readings from across the lake showed increases of 6.6–7.5 degrees F (3.7–4.2 degrees C). Further study has shown that most of the rising water level is attributable to increased mountain precipitation and increased snowfall in the high mountains. The country's glacier fields are shrinking, but glacial melt is not believed to have played a significant role in Issyk-Kul's rise.

The government expects that, in the north and northeastern parts of the country, the desert belt will move up about 1,312 ft. (400 m.), the steppe belt about 820 ft. (250 m.), forest meadows 492 ft. (150 m.), and the subalpine belt 328 ft. (100 m.); other parts of the country will see less dramatic shifts of about 656 ft. (200 m.) for deserts and steppes, and 492 ft. (150 m.) for forest-meadows.

Kyrgyzstan's government is not concerned about energy use in the country, and is only moderately concerned about water availability. It believes most native flora and fauna will adapt to shifting climate zones, and forests will benefit from a greater range. It is slightly more concerned about the impact on human health, particularly an increase in vector-borne disease like malaria and dengue fever, which might flourish under warmer average temperatures. It believes this can be countered by improved standards of living and health care investments.

As a developing nation, Kyrgyzstan is not obligated to cut emissions under the Kyoto Protocol, but has stated a commitment to implement plans to reduce carbon emissions by encouraging sustainable agricultural practices, building energy-efficient housing, implementing environmental controls in industry, and investing in renewable energy sources.