Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies

THE CENTER FOR Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS) at Florida State University (FSU) carries out research in air-sea interaction, ocean and coupled air-sea modeling, climate prediction, statistical studies, and predictions of social/economic consequences of ocean-atmospheric variations. Students in COAPS come from a wide variety of departments including meteorology, mathematics, computer science, and physical oceanography. COAPS is funded by several federal agencies, producing original published papers that advance our understanding of the ocean and the atmosphere and their role in shaping the Earths climate. It has over 50 people working on research grants totaling more than $3 per year. COAPS faculty are members of the meteorology and oceanography departments. It has graduate students as well as undergraduate research scholars.

COAPS s areas of research are quite broad. It places a particular emphasis on research to improve hurricane storm surge predictions in the Gulf of Mexico and to develop an understanding of the regional distributions of hurricane activity in the United States. This aspect is of particular importance to Florida and coastal residents. Among other topics, COAPS research includes understanding océanographie measurements obtained from satellites for sea-surface winds, sea-surface shape, and ocean color. It also encompasses climate forecasting for farmers in Florida, Georgia, and Alabama using coupled atmosphere-ocean global and regional models.

Weather and crop reports are offered to Florida, Georgia, and Alabama farmers through the Florida Climate Center. In addition, COAPS has created AgClimate, an interactive website with climate, agriculture, and forestry information, to assist farmers to manage their crops for maximum outcome. AgClimate uses crop simulation models along with historic and forecast climate data so farmers can compare probable outcomes under different climate conditions. AgClimate tools are aimed at providing farmers with opportunities for adaptating to seasonal climate forecasts so as to limit the production risks caused by climate variability. Tools provide information for specific counties as well as regional overviews.

The research on air/sea interaction focuses on the transfer of energy from the atmosphere to the ocean. Areas of interest cover theoretical modeling, analysis of in situ observations, satellite-based observations, flux coupling for ocean and atmospheric models, and analysis of spatial/temporal variability in surface turbulent fluxes. The In-Situ Fluxes Project at FSU aims to provide better products for marine surface variability. In particular, it addresses the transfer of energy between the ocean and the atmosphere, as well as variables related to this problem (wind speed, wind vectors, sea-surface temperature, air temperature, humidity, surface pressure, and wave characteristics).

FSU In-Situ Fluxes produces monthly averages, based solely on in situ observations (ships and buoys). The FSU Satellite Fluxes largely rely on satellite observations that offer finer resolution in space and time. The project provides a new set of ocean surface forcing fields to understand the global climate system and favor climate prediction. The long-term monthly fields are suitable for seasonal to decadal studies, and the related hybrid satellite and numerical weather [Page 180]prediction (NWP) fields can be employed for daily-to-annual variability and quality assessment.

COAPS is carrying out research on climate change with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). Together the two centers are building a new version of the Community Climate System model (CCSM), using the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) as the oceanic model. The CCSM is one of the most respected models in the climate research community. In this project, the CCSM is not employed with the conventional depth vertical coordinate, but with an oceanic model that uses hybrid vertical coordinates. Comparisons will be performed between the new CCSM/HYCOM and the standard (CCSM/POP) version. After the validation of the new coupled model, decadal to centennial time scale experiments will be conducted to study climate change (decades to centuries) and climate variability (seasonal to inter-annual). These experiments will include Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) integrations as well as investigations of the response and feedback of the ocean to external climate forcing.

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