Brazil

WITH THE 10TH largest economy and fifth largest population in the world, Brazil is an important enactor of climate policy. Its energy matrix is relatively “clean”—80 percent of the generated electricity comes from hydropower, and 45 percent of the country's total energy consumption comes from renewable sources. Most of Brazil's CO2 emissions come from biomass burning, as a result of deforestation. Deforestation is responsible for between 10 and 25 percent of the global human-induced carbon emissions and 60 percent of all Brazil emissions. Although total fossil fuel CO2 emissions have increased steadily and reached 90 million metric tons in 2004, Brazil's per capita emission rate of 0.50 metric tons of CO2 per year remains well below global average rates.

Climatic change is expected to impact Brazil in many different ways, from increases in semiarid areas in the northeast, to higher rates of rainfall in the southeast. Lower rainfall rates in northeast Brazil will result in even more extreme drought spells and further challenge the availability of water in a region already historically ravaged by climate-related poverty. In addition, groundwater recharge may also decrease dramatically (by as much as 70 percent) further affecting the availability of water resources. Less water will also negatively affect irrigated agriculture and hydro electricity production in the region.

Negative impacts are also predicted for Brazil's rich biodiversity, especially in areas such as the Amazon and Atlantic rainforests, or fragile ecosystems such as the Pantanal wetland, which may lose up to 40 percent of its species diversity with temperature increases of about 3.6 degrees F (2 degrees C) above pre-industrial levels. The Amazon forest may go [Page 137]through a “savannization” process in which increases in temperature and decreases in soil moisture may lead to the gradual replacement of the tropical forest by vegetation similar to that in Brazil's savannahs. This savannization will be accompanied by possible extinction of species and loss of biodiversity. Drier weather may also increase the frequency of forest fires in the region, which, in turn, would contribute to further CO2 emissions.

Deforestation, such as in this open pit mine in Minas Gérais, is responsible for 60 percent of Brazil's CO2 emissions.

Other possible negative impacts include coastal cities and coral reefs being affected by rising sea levels, the expansion of vectorborne diseases, and possible increases in the frequency and intensity of weather-related disasters, such as flooding and cyclones. One sector of special concern is agriculture, because of its critical importance to Brazil's economy, and because of its role in the country's biofuel programs, essential to meeting mitigation goals for CO2 emissions. Regarding human vulnerability to climate change, although, overall, Brazil fares relatively well when compared to other countries, the high level of socioeconomic inequality and large pockets of poverty suggest that significant portions of the population may be highly vulnerable to climate change and will need specific policies to increase their levels of adaptive capacity.

Brazil's climate policy, both domestic and international, has been, at times, aggressively proactive (as with the design and pursuit of Clean Development Mechanisms, or CDMs) and remarkably reactionary (as in the government's reluctance to support initiatives to curb deforestation as part of its climate policy portfolio). Brazil has been a leader in the Kyoto negotiations to introduce carbon-trading mechanisms such as CDMs, which allow for developed countries and businesses to count greenhouse gas (GHG) reductions generated by projects carried out in less developed countries (LDCs). Currently, Brazil is the country hosting the largest number of CDM projects.

...