Empiric Risk

Empiric risk refers to the chance that a particular event or disease will occur in a person, family, or population, based on experience or observation (empeira = experience), as opposed to predicting risk based on theoretical considerations or conjecture.

For example, the empiric risk can be calculated for relatives of inflammatory bowel diseases (IBDs) sufferers based on observed population statistics. Among Ashkenazi Jews, the age-corrected empiric risk estimates for IBDs are 8.9 percent to offspring, 8.8 percent to siblings, and 3.5 percent to parents. These estimates can be used for both genetic counseling and genetic modeling. Empiric risk can also be expressed as a risk ratio. For example, first-degree relatives of prostate carcinoma patients have a summary recurrence risk ratio of 2.53.

The concept of empiric risk is used to investigate multifactorial traits and events such as cancer. The empiric risk is not calculated but is an observed population statistic used to predict recurrence of a multifactorial trait in a family. The empiric risk increases with severity of the trait, the number of affected relatives, their sex, and degree of relatedness to the affected individual.