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Political Leaders
Unlike what holds in the arts, sciences, chess, and sports, political leadership is not always counted as a major domain of giftedness or talent. Even so, several classic investigations included notable political leaders along with eminent scientists and artists. For example, Francis Galton's 1869 Hereditary Genius has a whole chapter devoted to prime ministers, presidents, and other heads of state, and Catharine Cox's 1926 Early Mental Traits of Three Hundred Geniuses examined illustrious politicians and revolutionaries among other professions. Whether or not political leadership can be considered as talent or giftedness depends on a scientist's stance on the causes of effective leadership. On the one hand, some investigators hold that political leadership depends on being the right person. On the other hand, some researchers defend the proposition that such leadership is actually contingent on being at the right place at the right time. The former position is sometimes called the great man theory, the latter the Zeitgeist theory. However, researchers in this area more often frame the debate as concerning the relative impact of individual and situational variables.
Individual Traits
If political leadership is a matter of being the right person, then it should be possible to identify one or more personal characteristics that correlate with the eminence or performance of political leaders. If it can also be shown that these predictive traits are inherited in some fashion (e.g., genetic endowment), then it is reasonable to speak of someone having a talent or gift for political leadership. For instance, psychometric studies have shown that leader effectiveness is positively correlated with general intelligence, and historiometric inquiries have indicated that intelligence is the trait that most strongly predicts achieved eminence or greatness as a political leader. Furthermore, general intelligence has one of the highest heritabilities of any individual-difference variable. Therefore, this trait can be taken as one component of political talent. Because most other personal predictors of leadership also feature a genetic contribution, talent in political leadership may be defined by a specific set of partially inherited traits.
Even so, several considerations render such talent much more complicated than in other domains of achievement. First, in some instances the traits have nonlinear associations with the success criterion. For example, political leadership can be a curvilinear inverted-U function of general intelligence. Second, sometimes a personal traits effect on leadership is indirect rather than direct. For instance, although leaders are more extraverted than introverted, extraversion does not predict performance but rather predicts policy stances that may or may not determine performance. Third, almost invariably individual traits have less predictive power than do situational factors. Although a politician must be the right person, it is even more important that he or she be at the right place at the right time.
Situational Factors
Political scientists are fond of enumerating all of the situational variables that influence leadership in governmental positions. These variables are not just political but also economic, military, and diplomatic. Not surprisingly, these factors tend to account for far more of the variation in leader performance than all the individual traits put together. Presidential leadership in the United States offers many examples: (a) voter approval ratings automatically go up when the nation is subjected to a surprise attack, (b) success in getting legislation through Congress is dependent on the president's party having majorities in both houses of the legislature; (c) the probability of getting reelected is lowered if an economic downturn takes place in the months leading up to the election, and (d) the president's ultimate greatness according to expert evaluations is enhanced if the chief executive just happens to get assassinated.
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