Ecological Risk Analysis

Environmental Risk

In ERA, the term environmental risk is defined as the degree of interferences of the natural resources caused by significant changes in a planned project. This risk definition differs from the usage of the term risk in decision theory, which focuses on probabilities of risks. An ERA application in planning normally results in assessment values of a risk index by aggregation of different aspects, parameters, or indicators (e.g., soil, water, climate, fauna, flora, human, culture, heritage, social and economical conditions and their interferences) of the environment. The main aspect is the differentiation between analysis or modeling and the valuation step. The analysis and modeling normally result in nominal, ordinal, or cardinal outcomes (e.g., a soil erosion risk does [not] exist, the soil erosion risk is in the class between 1 and 2 tons ha-1 yr.-1 [per hectare per year], or the soil erosion risk will be 11.5 tons ha-1 yr.-1). The assessment categorizes the results of the environmental analysis or modeling to a societal view of risk, for example, the result of an analysis of 11.5 tons soil erosion per hectare per year is compared with thresholds, norms, qualitative goals, or standards given by law or society by categorizing the cardinal measurements or modeling results into a class of high erosion risk. The categorization of the assessment into ordinal classes of risks is a standard application in environmental risk analysis.

Ecological Risk Analysis in Environmental Planning

ERA is used for different applications in practice. When focusing on sectoral approaches in agriculture, forestry, industry, tourism, or urban development, ERA applications use sectoral indicators sets (e.g., for the assessment of the sustainability of the land use of farms). When analyzing, for example, the impacts of a planned infrastructure project, a wide range of potential impacts on the environment is within the scope of the investigation.

...