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Fertility Rates

In the United States, the stereotypical family includes a married man and woman having 2.2 children. It is becoming increasingly clear, however, that all women may not bear the average number of children; individual and societal-level fertility rates are continually changing. In discussing fertility rates, it is important to note how fertility rates are defined, why it is important to track fertility rates, and how current fertility rates are influenced by demographic, governmental, social, political, and economic influences. These topics will be outlined in further detail in this entry.

Defining Fertility Rates

First, it is important to distinguish birth rates from fertility rates. Birth rates are defined as the number of live births per 1,000 women in the total population (across all demographic levels). In terms of population growth, however, the single most important factor is the total fertility rate (TFR). The TFR is defined as the average number of babies born to women during their reproductive years, which is typically considered ages 15 to 44. For the population in a given area to remain stable, an overall TFR of 2.1 is needed, assuming no immigration or emigration occurs. In other words, if, on average, women birth 2.1 children and these children survive to the age of 15, any given woman will have replaced herself and her partner upon death; a TFR of 2.1 is known as the replacement rate. Generally speaking, when the TFR is greater than 2.1, the population in a given area will increase, and when it is less than 2.1, the population in a given area will eventually decrease, though it may take some time because factors such as age structure, emigration, or immigration must be considered. More specifically, if there are numerous women of child-bearing age and a relatively small number of older individuals within a given society, the death rate will be low, so even though the TFR is below the replacement rate, the population may remain stable or even increase slightly. This trend could not last infinitely, but could last for decades.

Currently, this type of trend can be seen in the United States and other developed nations. Women in these areas are not having enough children to replace themselves and their partners upon death, but there are more women of childbearing age than older, dying individuals (and immigration rates are substantial), so the population continues to grow despite the low TFR.

The Importance of Tracking Fertility Rates

Tracking fertility rates is important for a few reasons. First, tracking fertility rates allows for more efficient and beneficial planning and resource allocation within a particular region. If a country experiences unusually high, sustained fertility rates, increasing numbers of schools, affordable child care, and health care advancements may be needed. This most recently occurred in the United States during the post-World War II baby boom era. During this period, the TFR in the United States peaked at about 3.8, which is almost double what it was 40 years later. The unusually high number of children born during this period left communities unprepared. It is also important to know if regions experience declining TFRs. Sustained low fertility rates may signify a rapidly aging population, which may place an undue burden on the economy through increasing health care costs and the cost of supporting maximal numbers of retirees.

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